Guru cuts ad targets, but online still gains

Citing worsening economic conditions coupled with the lack of growth in consumer disposable income, Robert J. Coen, director of forecasting at Interpublic Group’s Magna unit, reduced his estimate for full-year US ad-spending growth to 2 per cent, down from a 3.7 per cent forecast made in December. He also trimmed estimates for world-wide ad growth slightly, saying softening in Western Europe would be offset by healthy growth in countries such as Russia, India and China.The picture was different in his emerging media forecasts for 2009:- Search will grow by 24.0 per cent to $13.8 billion. Search remains the largest "emerging" media category. – Social media will grow by 37.4 per cent to $1.474 billion. Social Media will benefit from improved monetisation. – Online video will grow by 45.0 per cent to $805 million. This will be the fastest growing emerging media platform. – Gaming will grow by 27.4 per cent to $296 million. The bulk of dollars will come from tonnage of online consumption. – Mobile will grow by 42.6 per cent to $298 million. Growth will come from experimentation and expansion of an endemic platform. – Advanced TV will grow by 13.7 per cent to $183 million. The medium remains constrained for the largest advertisers. – Emerging Out-of-home will grow by 22.7 per cent to $1.954 billion. New digital billboards and aggregation of inventory will be key to growth. Back to top

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