Cable will retain dominance in the global multi-channel TV market over the next five years but the threat from the new generation of digital and IP services will take its toll, predicts Ovum.
Globally cable TV will reach 573 million households by 2015, but will grow by an average of only three per cent per year for that period. The strongest growth will come from IPTV with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 24 per cent over the next five years to reach 109 million households.
Meanwhile digital terrestrial TV (DTT) will grow by an average of 18 per cent annually to reach 211 million households by 2015.
It predicts satellite TV will experience healthy average annual growth of ten per cent over the next five years to reach 419 million households worldwide. In the UK, satellite will retain its dominance reaching 13.7 million households by 2015, compared to just 3.9 million for cable. In second place is digital terrestrial, which will reach 11 million UK households in 2015, up only slightly from 10.3 million in 2010. Telco-delivered IPTV services will remain relatively insignificant in the UK market, reaching only 1.3 million UK households by 2015. However this is more than double the 2010 figure of 610,000, showing relatively strong growth.
In the US cable will retain its dominance but the number of households subscribed will drop from 60 million in 2010 to 54 million in 2015 as IPTV and internet-based alternatives continue to steal market share. Doran commented: “This is the continuation of a decline that’s already begun as households subscribing to cable dropped by four million between 2007 and 2010.
Ovum expects global pay-TV revenues to grow by nearly 40 per cent by 2015, but this figure masks significant variations between markets as well as platforms.