The Asia Pacific region is undergoing a digital TV boom that will see penetration increase from 29 per cent in 2010 to 73 per cent in 2016 – or up by nearly 400 million homes, according to a new report from Digital TV Research (DTVR). Fast-growth economies, higher disposable incomes and rising populations will lead this expansion. The report – Digital TV Asia Pacific – calculated that these factors will also result in 92 million more TV households between 2010 and 2016.
Report author Simon Murray observed that China and India have a massive influence over the region, mainly down to to their 1 billion-plus populations. Together, they will have 608 million TV households (73 per cent of the region’s total) by 2016. They will provide 467 million digital TV homes combined – or 77 per cent of Asia Pacific’s total.”
“Although China and India dominate the region, several other large countries, especially Indonesia, Pakistan, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam, have underdeveloped TV markets. By 2016, these five countries will have 127 million TV households combined, but only 38 per cent digital penetration and 24 per cent pay-TV penetration,” he explained.
DTVR predicts that despite the rapid conversion, digital TV will still have plenty of room for growth for some time to come. By 2016, Indonesia and the Philippines will still have analogue penetration of 85 per cent and 79 per cent, respectively. China will have 83 million analogue homes and India 58 million.
Of the 388 million digital homes to be added between 2010 and 2016, 68 million will come from DTT. Digital cable will contribute a further 188 million and pay DTH 29 million, with pay IPTV supplying a further 85 million.
Pay-TV penetration is forecast to rise from 49 per cent in 2010 to 63 per cent in 2016, adding 156 million subs to take the total to 522 million. China will provide 296 million pay-TV households, with India supplying a further 133 million. However, pay-TV penetration will be higher in South Korea (91 per cent) and Hong Kong (85 per cent). Legitimate pay-TV penetration will be lowest in Indonesia (7 per cent), with the Philippines and Thailand the next lowest, with 23 per cent each.
Pay-TV revenues in Asia Pacific will be US$16.5 billion higher in 2016 (US$37.3 billion total) than in 2010. Japan (US$9.9 billion) will remain market leader in 2016, followed by China (US$8.5 billion) and India (US$7.8 billion). However, pay-TV revenues will be flat in Australia, Hong Kong, Singapore and South Korea.
According to Murray, Cable TV will remain the highest earner, though its revenues will remain flat at US$21 billion during the forecast period. Digital cable TV revenues will climb by US$10.2 billion between 2010 and 2016 to US$17.3 billion, with analogue cable TV falling from US$12.2 billion to US$4.2 billion.
There will be 358 million cable homes by 2016, up only 42 million from 316 million at end-2010. Cable penetration will be 43.0 per cent by 2016, almost unchanged from 42.6 per cent at end-2010. “The good news for cable operators is that the number of digital subs will nearly triple over the same period to nearly 300 million, though the analogue total will fall to a third of its 2010 total,” noted Murray.
Digital cable penetration will be highest in China (52 per cent), Singapore (47 per cent) and South Korea (43 per cent) by 2016. China and India will together supply 88 per cent of the total digital subs.
Although the total is falling rapidly, there will still be 59 million analogue cable subs (7.1 per cent of TV households) by 2016. About 38 per cent of Taiwan’s TV households will still receive analogue cable signals by 2016, with Pakistan on 27 per cent. India will still have 41 million analogue cable subs in 2016.
The number of homes paying for IPTV will take off from a low base to reach nearly 100 million by 2016 – or 11.8 per cent of TV households. IPTV penetration will be highest in Hong Kong and Singapore in 2016, at 38 per cent and 36 per cent respectively. China will contribute 70 million IPTV subs by 2016. IPTV revenues will climb to US$5.4 billion by 2016, up from only US$1.1 billion in 2010. China and Japan will each supply US$1.6 billion to the 2016 total.
IPTV subs will overtake pay DTH ones in 2013. Nearly 30 million pay DTH homes will be added between 2010 and 2016, taking the total to 66 million (or 7.9 per cent of TV households). India (45 million – or two-thirds of the regional total) will be the largest country by DTH subscribers, but penetration will be higher in Malaysia (40 per cent) and New Zealand (39 per cent). India will generate US$3.2 billion of the region’s US$10.3 billion DTH revenues in 2016. The number of free DTH homes will reach 52 million by 2016, up from 34 million in 2010.
After a slow start, DTT is taking off. Primary DTT households (homes not subscribing to cable, DTH or IPTV but taking DTT) will rocket from 24 million (3.2 per cent penetration) at end-2010 to 92 million (11.1 per cent) by 2016. China will provide 52 million of the 2016 total, followed by Japan with 12 million. However, penetration will be higher in Australia (66 per cent) and Malaysia (31 per cent).
Analogue terrestrial signals will still be received in 20 per cent of TV households (168 million) by 2016, though this is well down on 43 per cent (318 million) at end-2010. In fact, analogue terrestrial penetration will still be very high in Indonesia (85 per cent) and the Philippines (71 per cent) in 2016. China will have 83 million ATT homes at end-2016, with India supplying a further 41 million.