The number of digital TV homes will double between 2010 and 2016 to 1.189 billion, according to analyst firm Digital TV Research (DTVR). The Digital TV World Household Forecasts report estimates that digital penetration will climb from 42.5 per cent at end-2010 to 80.0 per cent by 2016. By 2016, 33 countries will be completely digital compared with only one (Finland) at end-2010.
Report author Simon Murray noted that of the 613 million digital TV homes to be added between 2010 and 2016, 256 million would come from digital cable. Primary FTA DTT [homes taking DTT but not subscribing to cable, DTH or IPTV] are forecast to bring in a further 154 million, with pay DTT adding 5 million. Pay IPTV will increase by 121 million, with pay DTH up 56 million and FTA DTH 22 million.
“There were still 780 million analogue TV households (both terrestrial and cable, with a few analogue DTH ones) by end-2010. However, this total will fall to 297 million by end-2016. Analogue penetration will drop from 57.5 per cent at end-2010 to 20.0 per cent by end-2016,” he added.
Split by platform, there will be 220 million analogue terrestrial homes and 77 million analogue cable ones at end-2016, according to DTVR. However, digital cable subscribers will reach 458 million homes, followed by 195 million pay digital DTH and 119 million free-to-air digital DTH. Pay IPTV will contribute another 155 million households, up from only 35 million at end-2010. Meanwhile, FTA (free-to-air) DTT homes will reach 248 million, with pay DTT generating a further 13 million.
Digital cable will be the most popular platform by end-2016, accounting for 30.8 per cent of the world’s TV households, with analogue cable still serving 5.2 per cent of TV households. Pay digital DTH penetration will be 13.1 per cent, with FTA digital DTH accounting for 8.0 per cent. Pay IPTV penetration will climb to 10.5 per cent, up from only 2.6 per cent at end-2010. About 16.7 per cent of homes will be primary FTA DTT at end-2016, with 0.9 per cent pay DTT. Analogue terrestrial TV will be taken by nearly 15 per cent of the world’s TV households, down from 36 per cent at end-2010.
Of the 613 million digital TV households to be added between 2010 and 2016, 388 million will be in the Asia Pacific region, bringing its total to 607 million. China became the largest digital TV household nation in 2010, and will boast 352 million digital homes by end-2016.