Global TV shipment outlook reduced
July 28, 2011
In the latest DisplaySearch – Quarterly Advanced Global TV Shipment and Forecast Report – the total global TV shipment outlook for 2011 has been reduced by about 3 per cent to 252 million units, as demand in many developed countries continues to be very soft. TV shipments in North America are only expected to grow about 2 per cent this year after 4 per cent growth in 2010, while Western European TV shipments will fall about 1.5 per cent. In addition, after exceptional growth in 2009 and 2010 due to government incentive programs, the Japanese TV market will decline by over 40 per cent in 2011, although demand leading up to the July 24 analogue broadcast shutoff has been better than expected, and may result in a slightly lower decline.
“With so many consumers having traded up from CRT to flat panel TVs in developed markets like North America, Europe and Japan, we’ve been anticipating slower growth in demand for 2011,” noted Paul Gagnon, Director of North America TV Research for DisplaySearch. Gagnon added, “Demand in emerging markets like China, Latin America, and India is continuing to grow strongly with a relatively low level of flat panel TV household penetration; this will more than offset slowdowns in developed regions.”
Indeed, the compound annual growth rate for TV shipments in emerging regions is expected to be 6 per cent from 2011 through 2015, but just 0.3 per cent in developed regions. China will become the world’s largest flat panel TV market in 2011, overtaking North America and Europe with more than 46 million units shipped, and will hold that position throughout the forecast.
LCD continues to increase its share of the TV market, at about 84 per cent currently. LCD TV shipments are forecast to increase from 192M in 2010 to 210M this year. This is lower than the previous forecast of 217M, which is a key reason the overall TV market forecast was reduced.
New technologies, such as LED backlights and 3D, are helping to keep overall LCD TV prices very stable in 2011, falling only 7 per cent Y/Y on a volume weighted average basis, which in turn will keep revenue growth slightly positive. However, LCD TV revenues should start to decline around 2013 when these new features see a more significant drop in price premium. LED-backlit sets will account for about 46 per cent of total 2011 LCD TV unit shipments, while 3D-capable sets account for 8 per cent.
Plasma TV continues to be a relevant part of the global flat panel TV industry, but is seeing slowly shrinking market share as LCD continues to grow. This is particularly important in the 40″-49″ category, so plasma TV makers are likely to start focusing on 50″+ displays. Plasma’s share of the TV market will fall from about 7 per cent of units shipped worldwide in 2011 to less than 5 per cent by 2015, but maintain a 40-50 per cent share of the 50″+ segment through the forecast.
OLED is set to debut in late 2012 as a contender in the 40″+ category, but will only grow to about 2 per cent of the 40″+ segment by 2015 due to high prices and limited availability.
Emerging regions, which include China, Asia Pacific, Latin America, Eastern Europe and Middle East/Africa, will have the strongest flat panel TV growth over the next four years, averaging 17 per cent growth per year. The Asia Pacific region is positioned for strongest growth as the late-adopting India market begins to boom. By comparison, developed regions (North America, Japan, and Western Europe) will see no growth over the same time period.
The worldwide forecast for 3DTVs was not significantly changed. 3D TVs are expected to account for about 20M in 2011, rising to more than 100M shipped by 2015. Although some consumer confusion about technology and standards is likely to persist, the falling premium and cost associated with 3D will make it a standard feature of 40″ and larger sets. In 2011, almost a quarter of 40″ and larger TVs shipped worldwide will be 3D capable, rising to 84 per cent by 2015.