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The number of pay DTH homes for 80 countries covered in a Digital TV Research report will be 220 million by end-2017, up from 154 million at end-2011 and 91 million at end-2007. India will lead the sector with 50.9 million pay DTH homes in 2017, followed by the US with 36.5 million. Russia (14.7 million) and Brazil (14.6 million) will take third and fourth places respectively.
The Global Satellite TV Forecasts report states that India will add 22.8 million subs, Brazil 7.6 million and Indonesia 6.7 million from the 66 million extra subscribers between 2011 and 2017.
Pay DTH penetration was at 11.1 per cent of TV households at end-2011, and will reach 14.4 per cent by 2017. Penetration in 2017 will be highest in South Africa (60 per cent), Poland (45 per cent) and Ireland (44 per cent). Penetration in Indonesia will climb from 5 per cent in 2011 to 18 per cent by 2017. Conversely, penetration in Malaysia will fall from 47 per cent in 2011 to 38 per cent by 2017 as satellite homes are encouraged to convert to IPTV.
DTH revenues will overtake cable TV revenues in 2015. DTH revenues will reach $91 billion in 2017, up from $76 billion in 2011. The US will remain DTH market leader, though its share of the total will fall from 46 per cent in 2011 to 42 per cent in 2017. Brazil will add the most DTH revenues ($3.86 billion) between 2011 and 2017 – nearly doubling its total in the process. The US will grow by $3.1 billion, meaning that Brazil and the US will contribute nearly half of the extra revenues.
Report author Simon Murray said: “However, DTH revenues will decline for 17 countries between 2011 and 2017. Much of this is due to greater competition forcing down ARPUs. Furthermore, low-cost DTH packages are making a significant impact in several countries.”