Global triple-play subscriptions will reach 400 million by 2017; up by nearly 300 million on the end-2011 total and up by 380 million on the 2007 total, according to a report from Digital TV Research.
Covering 80 countries, the report forecasts that the Asia Pacific region will contribute 257 million of the 2017 total; up by more than 200 million on the end-2011 total. China alone will have 193 million triple-play subscribers by 2017 (with only 39 million recorded at end-2011) – or 48 per cent of the global total.
Simon Murray, author of the report, said: “The number of triple-play households will overtake the standalone TV total in 2013. The standalone TV total will begin to decline from 2016 as homes convert to bundles. There will be 84 million double-play subscribers in 2017.”
Murray continued: “So 61 per cent of cable and DSL/fibre TV subscribers will pay for triple-play bundles by 2017, up from 38 per cent in 2011 and only 21 per cent in 2007. By way of comparison, the standalone TV proportion will fall from 63 per cent in 2007 and 49 per cent by end-2011 to only 27 per cent by 2017.”
Despite rapid growth in IPTV subscriptions, cable will still contribute nearly two-thirds of triple-play subscribers by 2017. However, triple-play penetration will remain higher in DSL and fibre homes (81 per cent by 2017) than in cable homes (54 per cent).
This report defines triple-play as homes subscribing to TV, broadband and fixed telephony services. Double-play is TV and broadband subscribers. These are subscribers to cable and DSL & fibre networks, so the figures exclude satellite TV providers (such as BSkyB in the UK) which supply triple-play and double-play bundles.
More than a quarter of the world’s TV households (covering 80 countries) will subscribe to triple-play services by 2017. This is up from only 8 per cent penetration at end-2011 and only 2 per cent at end-2007. Proportions in 2017 will be highest in the Netherlands and Belgium (both with 64 per cent), followed by Taiwan (60 per cent) and Singapore (59 per cent). Eight countries will have more than 50 per cent triple-play penetration by 2017.
Triple-play subscription revenues will reach $149 billion by 2017. The US ($59 billion) will account for 40 per cent of the world’s triple-play revenues by 2017, followed by Japan ($13 billion), China ($12 billion) and Canada ($10 billion). From the $93 billion to be added between 2011 and 2017, the US will supply $32 billion, with Japan and China each up by $10 billion.
Triple-play revenues overtook standalone TV revenues in 2010. Standalone TV revenues will start falling from 2014 as subscribers defect to bundles and as cable and DSL/fiber operators offer lower-priced packages due to greater competition from other platforms.