Satellite revenue strong, but oversupply looms

NSR’s Global Assessment of Satellite Supply & Demand, 10th Edition report, projects commercial satellite operator revenues from transponder and bandwidth leasing will top $18.8 billion in the coming ten years, up from $11.2 billion in 2012.

This strong growth comes from a mix of C, Ku and widebeam Ka-band transponder leasing gains in such diverse markets as DTH, video distribution and VSAT networking, generating some $4.5 billion in new revenues by 2022. A rapid emergence in HTS and MEO-HTS provisioned services like broadband access, backhaul and mobility should also add another $3.1 billion in wholesale capacity revenues. Even with the positive growth projections, NSR raises real concerns about the potential negative impact of sustained supply growth on certain regional markets.

“Our current projections are that global supply of C, Ku and widebeam Ka-band transponders will increase by over 30 per cent by 2018, which is equivalent to more than 2,700 TPEs,” stated NSR senior analyst and report author, Patrick French. “Further, NSR expects that global HTS and MEO-HTS supply will reach a phenomenal 2.3 Tbps by 2022, equal to over 450 ‘classic’ C/Ku satellite payloads.”

“While NSR clearly believes that demand exists for these transponder and HTS/MEO-HTS supply increases”, stated French, “there will also be winners and losers during this period of transition in the industry with battles being fought out application-by-application and satellite-by-satellite in each country and region around the world.”

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