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Global TV advertising expenditure will reach $236 billion (€178bn) in 2020, up by 38 per cent – or $64 billion – from 2013 and up by 54 per cent – or $82 billion – on 2010, according to a report from Digital TV Research. TV ad spend is expected to grow by 4 per cent in 2014 for the 55 countries covered; better than the 2.2 per cent recorded in 2013.
Simon Murray, author of the TV Advertising Forecasts report, said: “Positives for TV advertising in 2014 include World Cup soccer in Brazil and economic improvement in much of Europe. However, not all countries have fully recovered economically. Devaluation is a factor in some markets, such as Venezuela. In addition, internal conflicts in countries such as Israel, Thailand and the Ukraine have damaged the advertising industry.”
TV advertising expenditure will double in Latin America and the Middle East & Africa between 2010 and 2020. Excluding deflation-hit Japan, net TV advertising in Asia Pacific will also more than double between 2010 and 2020.
However, TV advertising spend in Western Europe will only be 26 per cent higher in 2020 than in 2010. TV advertising in Western Europe fell in both 2012 and 2013, with 2.7 per cent growth expected in 2014. The 2010 total will not be bettered until 2015. Excluding the booming Russian market, TV advertising in Eastern Europe will fall in 2012, 2013 and 2014. The 2011 total will only be surpassed in 2018.
From the $64.4 billion TV ad spend to be added between 2013 and 2020, $22.6 billion (35 per cent) will come from the US, followed by an extra $7.9 billion from China, $3.7 billion from Brazil and $3.1 billion from Japan.
The US will remain the global TV advertising market leader by some way. China overtook Japan to take second place in 2013. TV ad spend will more than double in Brazil between 2010 and 2020, with Russia also nearly doubling. However, Italy, hit even harder by the recession, has dropped dramatically and will not recover to the 2010 total by 2020.
Multichannel TV advertising expenditure will nearly double to $67.5 billion between 2010 and 2020. The US will contribute $35.2 billion to the 2020 total, followed someway behind by the Pan-Arab channels with $5.5 billion.
Free-to-air TV advertising expenditure will increase by 34 per cent between 2010 and 2020 to $168 billion.