The consensus is that Sky Deutschland’s Q2 numbers, out August 14, will be solidly respectable and continue the gains of recent quarters. Investment banker Morgan Stanley reminds us that Q1’s numbers showed gross adds of 155,000 (net about 73,000) for the quarter-year, churn of some 10.8 per cent (annualised) and monthly ARPU of €31.76.
For this upcoming quarter, the bank is anticipating 120,000 gross additional subs (net 40,000), churn up a little at 11.7 per cent, and ARPU improved to €32. Usefully, Sky-D should have another 50,000 or so subs paying for its HDTV service.
The bank’s report says it expects Sky-D to go EBITDA positive in Q2, and CEO Brian Sullivan has hinted this on more than one occasion. “Sky-D is encouraged that take-up by subscribers has remained robust despite the shortening of discount periods,” says Morgan Stanley, “and now thinks that full year adds will exceed the 359k of 2011 (we have 378k). Sky-D confidently expects subscriber growth to accelerate in 2013 and 2014 and has started to talk of its medium term ambitions of 4m+ subscribers.”
The bank says there are other factors which should help Tuesday’s newsflow. (i) Sky-D appears close to a co-marketing a deal with KDH (eight HD channels with Sky). This follows the recent Unity deal. (ii) An update on Sky-D’s plans with its extended Bundesliga rights package from 2013/14 (iii) And an update on the remaining €144 million of financing in its €300 million plan and refinancing of its €525 million debt facilities.