Research from Alcatel-Lucent’s Bell Labs, the research arm of Alcatel-Lucent, has revealed the impact of surging video consumption, suggesting that by 2020, people will be watching seven hours of video each day versus 4.8 hours today, with a dramatic shift from broadcasting to on-demand video viewing
With Christmas expected to bring another leap in ownership of tablets, smartphones and other devices, the research suggests that increasing consumption of video content on such devices will push the wired broadband networks that carry this traffic to their absolute limits over the next decade.
The study also highlighted how these trends will stretch the capabilities the residential broadband networks many service providers use today: as the delivery of video content rapidly moves from traditional broadcast TV to the ‘unicast’ delivery of personalised content to individuals, disproportionate pressure will be placed on the ‘IP edge’ of these networks, says Bell Labs. The IP edge is the part of the network where most of the intelligence is needed to deliver sophisticated video and high-speed Internet services is located. Broadcast is a much more efficient way of delivering video services, so the move to unicast creates enormous bandwidth demands on networks, it advises.
According to Marcus Weldon, Chief Technology Officer, Alcatel-Lucent, delivery of video from the cloud and from content delivery networks to tablets, TVs and smartphones – with guaranteed quality -, presents an exciting new revenue opportunity for communications service providers, but only if they are prepared to take advantage of it. “Left unmanaged, the rapid growth in video traffic can turn into a deluge and spell disaster. It is important to look at where service providers’ investments can have the most impact, and this research makes clear that the IP edge of both wireline and wireless networks – which are increasingly becoming one and the same – offers the greatest opportunity to improve network performance. At the same time, it also presents the greatest source of risk if not managed appropriately,” he warns.
Bell Labs found that on-demand video services, such as HD premium movie services as well as video sharing sites, will become even more popular over the next five years. As a result, on-demand video will command an increased share of viewing hours, causing peak-hour traffic at the ‘edge’ of new IP-based networks to grow 2.5 times faster than the amount of traffic on the broadband connections reaching households. This challenge will need to be addressed, comprehensively, if communications service providers are to maintain their ability to deliver high-quality residential multimedia services to consumers.
The study compared data about video usage and growth from 2012 to 2020 in ‘triple-play’ (video, data and voice) communications service providers, and identified the following trends: