Analyst firm Digital TV Research forecasts that Netflix will have 201 million streaming subscribers by 2023, up by 82 per cent from 111 million at end-2017. About 28 million subscribers will be added in 2018 – making it the largest growth year ever. Lower growth is expected after 2018, according to the Netflix Forecasts report.
North America and Western Europe will together supply 62 per cent of Netflix’s total subscriber base by 2023 – still dominant, but down from 76 per cent in 2017. Asia Pacific will boast fast growth by taking 14 per cent of the 2023 total. This represents 28 million subs; quadruple the 2017 figure.
“These forecasts are a lot higher than the last edition of this report,” noted Simon Murray, Principal Analyst at Digital TV Research. “Similar to many other analysts, we underestimated the fast take-up in international markets.”
The top five countries will supply 53 per cent of Netflix’s subs by 2023; down from 69 per cent in 2017. Although the number of international subs overtook US ones in 2017, the US will still contribute 44 per cent of subscribers by 2023 – and will add 16 million subs between 2017 and 2023.
Streaming subscription revenues for Netflix will climb by 155 per cent from $11.3 billion (€9.44bn) in 2017 to $28.8 billion in 2023. The top five countries will generate revenues of $16 billion in 2023 – or 56 per cent of Netflix’s global subscription revenues. The US will contribute $11.2 billion, with four other countries above $1 billion.