Analyst: SVoD driving subs growth
October 1, 2018
Global pay-TV and SVoD subscriptions will reach 1.877 billion by 2023 according to the TV Forecasts report from analyst firm Digital TV Research. This total is up by 505 million (37 per cent) from 1.372 billion at end-2017. SVoD subscriptions will more than double between 2017 and 2023, but traditional pay-TV will only add 94 million subscribers.
The US will have 289 million subscriptions by 2023; up from 222 million at end-2017. As a result of cord-cutting, traditional pay-TV subscriptions will fall by 10 million to 80 million. However, multiple subscriptions will push the SVoD total from 132 million to 208 million.
“China is the brightest star by adding 171 million subscriptions during this period to take its total to 610 million,” advised Simon Murray, Principal Analyst at Digital TV Research. Its pay-TV total will ‘only” grow by 32 million to 375 million, but SVoD will rocket by 138 million to 235 million subscriptions. India will add a further 49 million pay-TV and SVoD subscriptions to take its total to 210 million in 2023.”
Subscription revenues will only increase by 11 per cent ($25.2 billion) to total $251 billion between 2017 and 2023. Traditional pay-TV revenues will drop by $18.5 billion to $183 billion. However, SVoD revenues will climb by $43.7 billion to $69 billion. SVoD’s share of the total will increase from 11 per cent in 2017 to 27 per cent in 2023.
The US will remain the subscription revenue leader despite its total falling from $108 billion in 2017 to $105 billion in 2023. Pay-TV subscription revenues will drop by $20 billion, with SVoD additions not quite high enough to make up the shortfall.
Digital TV Research points out that these figures are gross subscriptions. One household can have more than one subscription. For example, a household subscribing to pay satellite TV and Netflix would be counted as two subscriptions. Some homes pay for more than one SVoD platform. The TV Forecasts report provides forecasts for paying subscriptions across 138 countries.