Advanced Television

Forecast: Netflix production investment targets

September 5, 2019

Analysis by media analyst firm Ampere has predicted where the next Netflix originals are likely to be produced. A number of Netflix markets appear to be underweight in terms of their local original production activity relative to the importance of the market to Netflix. Other markets that have yet to receive local production investment are high on the list of potential targets. By comparing subscriber penetration and investment in local production in Netflix’s local markets, Ampere Analysis has identified which of these markets might be the next production investment targets for the streaming giant.

Markets with room for growth

Australia, Poland, Germany and the Netherlands display the characteristics of underweight markets. The size of the streaming audience in Australia makes it an ideal target for local investment. Although existing demand is met with English-language originals, productions with a home-baked Australian flavour will pay dividends in a market with strong SVoD penetration, especially in the light of Disney’s D2C imminent launch here. Smaller markets worthy of joining Belgium (just announced as the next market for a Netflix original) in getting their own local original, include Switzerland and Finland as well as Portugal.

Markets looking decidedly overweight

Denmark, India and several Latin American Netflix markets appear to have a glut of content and investment. The reasons lie in the global popularity of Nordic Noir and exportability of Spanish-language content to the US, and the longer-term potential Netflix sees in India.

“Within the top 30 markets still to receive local attention, Russian speaking markets in the CIS region seem likely targets for production investment, as do a number of smaller Western European markets crying out for local flavour,” advises Guy Bisson, Director, Ampere Analysis. “Beyond Netflix’s largest 30 markets, the next 10 biggest markets yet to receive investment include major CEE countries like Hungary and the Czech Republic, and several Middle Eastern countries. I’d expect announcements of new originals in these markets in the next few months and beyond.”

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