Facebook users in France and Germany are leaving the social media platform even faster than expected. For the second forecast in a row, eMarketer has downgraded Facebook user growth in both countries, as younger users shift to other platforms. In France this year, Facebook will experience a decline in users for the first time, whereas Germany experienced its first drop in users in 2018.

Germany: Facebook Users

Last year, Facebook usage in Germany dropped 1.2 per cent and will fall another 0.9 per cent by the end of 2019 to 25.9 million people. eMarketer’s previous forecast predicted growth of 0.1 per cent, however the number of users who left the platform outpaced those who joined.

The revised forecasts for Germany show an average decrease of about 9 per cent in Facebook users under 25 this year. The steepest drop-off will be seen among users ages 12 to 17, decreasing by 19.2 per cent. eMarketer expects users 34 and younger to continue leaving the platform through 2023. Incremental user growth among those 35 and over will help Facebook mitigate overall losses, though.

Despite the slight decline in users, Facebook remains the leading social network in Germany and will maintain that status for the foreseeable future. As a result, advertisers in Germany will continue to buy ad space on the platform. In 2020, ad spending on Facebook will grow by 11.9 per cent, reaching $2.49 billion (€2.11 billion).

“Over time, Facebook has lost its appeal for many young people, especially teens, but also younger adults,” eMarketer principal analyst Karin von Abrams said. “Usage of Facebook is still increasing among older internet users, but younger users can find it a bit stale and are drawn much more to Instagram and Snapchat these days. These platforms typically offer more up-to-the-minute experiences and a more vibrant atmosphere. Snapchat particularly benefitted from the Q2 2019 release of its updated Android app—as well as new visual filters, including a ‘baby face’ lens. These changes boosted engagement quite dramatically.”

Germany: Instagram, Snapchat and Twitter

While Facebook is seeing a decline in users in Germany, other social networks like Instagram, Snapchat and Twitter are all gaining users.

• Instagram will grow by 10.4 per cent this year to 17.7 million users. In 2020, there will be more users under 25 on Instagram than on Facebook.
• Snapchat will grow by 7.5 per cent this year to 10.6 million users.
• Twitter will grow by 4.3 per cent this year to 4 million users.

France: Facebook Users

In France, 2019 will be the first time that the total number of Facebook users will decline. The user base will shrink by 1.3 per cent to 27.6 million. This decline is expected to continue. In fact, by 2022, less than 50 per cent of internet users in France will use Facebook.

The story in France is similar to that in Germany: Younger people are opting for other social platforms over Facebook. In 2020, Instagram users under 25 will surpass Facebook users in that age group for the first time.

France: Instagram, Snapchat and Twitter

• This year, Instagram’s users in France will grow by 10.7 per cent to 14.9 million.
• Snapchat will have 16.4 million users in 2019, 17.8 per cent higher than last year. The number of Snapchat users in France will surpass those in the UK for the first time this year.
• Twitter will grow by 2.6 per cent in 2019, to 3.9 million users.

Categories: Articles, Consumer Behaviour, Research, Social Media