Last year was a defining period for the German TV and video market, with mass market resistance to premium digital video finally falling away and paving the way for next month’s launch of Disney+. As the German market undergoes reinvention, figures from Futuresource Consulting show total spend on video entertainment will reach nearly €10 billion in 2020.
“2019 was a year of structural change,” said David Sidebottom, Principal Analyst at Futuresource Consulting. “With Disney’s acquisition of Fox, and private equity group KKR’s acquisition of both Tele Munchen and leading independent Universum Film, there’s an increased industry focus on producing content for a wider array of platforms. This is helping to drive the shift to digital consumption, pushed along by the German launch of Apple TV+ in November 2019, closely followed by Joyn Plus+. Factor in Netflix’s continued ascendance as it closes the gap on Amazon Prime Video and we’re going to see a groundswell of consumer engagement throughout 2020.”
Consumer research carried out by Futuresource suggests that the launch of Disney+ in Germany won’t have as much market impact as it did in the US, but the firm’s forecasts show it will still become a leading player behind Netflix and Amazon Prime Video in a relatively short space of time. Growth is expected to be boosted by telco and pay-TV bundling and distribution, with leading Pay-TV operators and telcos likely to integrate the service onto their platforms. In addition, churn will be controlled by Disney’s extensive and popular back catalogue of movie content, which is set to remain part of their services indefinitely once introduced.
“German consumers have generally lagged behind their UK counterparts by two years in terms of premium digital content consumption,” added Sidebottom. “However, that’s beginning to change. SVoD and transactional digital video are both performing well. The strong catch-up TV culture also provides a bedrock for future paid-for premium digital video growth. With the raft of new services and the continued growth of Netflix, we’re expecting to see SVoD uptake increase from less than 1.5 services per SVoD household in 2018, up to more than two in 2022. Combined with robust pay-TV subscription performance and growth in music streaming subscription services such as Spotify, we’re seeing an increased appetite for premium subscription content.”
Consumer spend on SVoD exceeded €1 billion in 2019, with Futuresource expecting total spend to reach €2.5 billion by 2023. pay-TV hit €6 million in 2019, largely due to the increased ARPU, up by €1.1 billion from 2014.
“Market movements have ushered in a new digital era for Germany,” concluded Sidebottom. “The full value of service launches will be felt across 2020 and beyond, with the TV and video market culminating in a value of almost €11 billion in 2023.”