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Australia: Mobile services revenue forecast to increase 3% CAGR

February 24, 2022

Mobile service revenue in Australia is expected to increase from $9.6 billion (€8.6bn) in 2021 to $11.2 billion in 2026, at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3 per cent, mainly driven by the mobile data service segment, according to GlobalData, a data and analytics company.

An analysis of GlobalData’s Australia Mobile Broadband Forecast Model (Q4-2021) reveals that mobile voice service revenue is expected to decline slightly at a CAGR of 0.3 per cent over the forecast period 2021-2026. On the other hand, mobile data service revenue is set to increase at a CAGR of 4.1 per cent, supported by the growing adoption of 5G services, which yield higher average revenue per user (ARPU).

Deepa Dhingra, Senior Telecom Analyst at GlobalData, commented: “While 3G service subscription is expected to witness a steep decline though the forecast period, 5G service will see its subscriptions surpass that of 4G service in 2024 and become the dominant mobile technology cornering 68 per cent of total mobile subscriptions by end of the forecast period. This growth in 5G subscriptions will be primarily driven by the ongoing 5G network expansions by the major operators – Telstra, Optus and TPG Telecom.

“Telstra will lead the mobile services market in Australia in terms of mobile subscriptions in 2021, followed by Optus and TPG Telecom. Telstra will retain its leading position through 2026 with plans to increase its 5G network reach to 95 per cent of the population from the existing 75 per cent, while increasing metro cells by twofold to enhance 5G speed and capacity by 2025,” added Dhingra.

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