Forecast: 1.6bn fixed broadband subs by 2030
June 29, 2022
Research from Point Topic, analysing global fixed broadband take-up by technology, forecasts that at the end of 2030 there will be 1.6 billion fixed broadband subscribers worldwide compared to 1.27 billion in Q4 2021, up by 26 per cent. Some 88 per cent of the fixed broadband subscribers will be in the top 30 broadband markets, ranked as such by the subscriber numbers recorded in Q4 2021.
Point Topic predicts that by end-2030, some variant of fibre (FTTH/P/B) will be used by 75 per cent of fixed broadband subscribers globally, compared to 62 per cent in Q4 2021. In the same period, the share of DSL (ADSL) based subscriptions will drop from 10 per cent to 4 per cent, the share of cable – from 17.5 per cent to 10 per cent, while the shares of FTTC/VDSL based connections and of other technologies will remain largely stable at just above 8 per cent and 2 per cent respectively.
Legacy copper networks have been losing customers to more advanced technologies for years. Between now and 2030, direct fibre networks will continue attracting the majority of new customers, with DSL figures forecast to drop to hundreds or tens of thousands in most technologically advanced markets.
China will remain the largest fibre broadband market in 2030, with projected 523 million subscribers. Point Topic believes that India will come second, with the United States third. Japan, the UK and France are also in the top ten list, which is dominated by the developing markets.
Spain and the UK are forecast to reach the highest fibre penetration among households in 2030 as a result of their ambitious fibre rollout projects. The fast developing markets of Vietnam, Chile and Indonesia as well as already well established fibre markets of China, Japan, Sweden, France and Korea are also in the top ten league by forecast fibre penetration.
While direct fibre growth will dominate this decade, Point Topic suggests that you can’t completely discount FTTC/VDSL and cable platforms, preferred by some operators, and especially their more advanced versions such as DOCSIS 3.1. Point Topic has seen them going strong in some markets, though it predicts the overall trend of decline in the numbers of subscribers using these technologies at the expense of direct fibre.
In terms of household penetration, fibre will be used by more than half of all global households, while overall fixed broadband penetration will be 70 per cent.
The launch of superfast 5G services has already affected fixed broadband take-up around the globe and will lead to some operators and countries losing fixed broadband subscribers by 2030.