Forecast: W Europe to add 73m SVoD subs
September 12, 2022
Western Europe will have 238 million SVoD subscriptions by 2027, up from 165 million by end-2021, according to the Western Europe SVOD Forecasts report from analyst firm Digital TV Research. Six US-based platforms will account for 81 per cent of all SVoD subscriptions by 2027.
Netflix will have 62 million subscribers by 2027 – 3 million more than 2021. Subscriptions are flat for 2022, mainly as a result of increased competition. Netflix’s share of the total will fall from 36 per cent in 2021 to 26 per cent by 2027.
Disney+ will have 46 million subscribers by 2027 – 20 million more than 2021. Newcomer Paramount+/SkyShowtime will add 11 million subscribers and HBO Max will bring in an extra 5 million.
Western European SVoD revenues will total $25 billion (€24.6bn) by 2027 – up from $16 billion in 2021. The UK will remain the SVoD revenue leader.
“Netflix will slowly lose SVoD revenues as we assume that it will convert its cheapest tier to a lower-priced hybrid AVoD-SVoD tier,” advises Simon Murray, Principal Analyst at Digital TV Research. “Any SVoD revenue shortfall will be more than covered by its AVoD revenues. Netflix will remain the SVoD revenue winner, although its share of the total will fall from nearly half in 2021 to a third in 2027.”
“We do not expect many more price rises due to the intense competition,” he adds. “We assume that Disney+ will follow its US example by converting its present tier to a hybrid AVoD-SVoD one and charging more for an SVoD-only tier.”