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Forecast: AV media in Germany to exceed €15bn in 2022

October 20, 2022

The total turnover of the audio and audiovisual media in Germany is expected to rise slightly by 2.5 per cent in 2022 and exceed €15 billion for the first time (2021: €14.8 billion). The main contributors are subscription and advertising revenues of audio and video streaming services. By contrast, the fallout from the tense overall economic situation can be seen in radio and TV advertising.

Commercial audiovisual media trade body VAUNET predicts the net advertising revenues of all audiovisual media (radio and TV advertising as well as advertising on audio and video streaming) to decline by 2.2 per cent this year. This negative development will be felt particularly sharply in television and radio, where advertising sales are expected to drop by 6 per cent and 3 per cent, respectively. And although advertising revenue on streaming services is set to enjoy double-digit growth, it won’t make up for the declines in linear advertising. These are the key findings of the 2021 revenue statistics and the outlook for 2022 unveiled today in Berlin by VAUNET, the umbrella organisation for commercial audiovisual media in Germany.

Frank Giersberg, Managing Director of VAUNET, commented: “The current turnover figures of the audio and audiovisual media underline just how economically and socially relevant they are. However, they also point to dependencies on the overall economic development and, as far as advertising refinancing is concerned, reveal the impact of inflation and the looming recession. Given this, commercial media are more reliant than ever on more fairly regulated competition with the services provided by licence-funded public broadcasters as well as global tech platforms. And irrespective of this, high priority must be ensured for the energy supply for audio and audiovisual media in the event of supply bottlenecks given their role as part of the critical infrastructure.”

Predicted cumulative advertising revenue in 2022

According to VAUNET’s forecast, audio and audiovisual advertising revenues in Germany will total €6.14 billion in 2022 – 2.2 per cent down on 2021.

Advertising revenue of radio and audio streaming in 2022

For 2022 as a whole, VAUNET anticipates a decline in net sales of 1.7 per cent to around €778 million for audio advertising. For radio advertising, sales are set to fall by 3 per cent to €686 million. For the much smaller segment of advertising in audio streaming services, turnover is predicted to grow by 10 per cent to €92 million.

Advertising revenue in TV and video streaming in 2022

For 2022, VAUNET expects net advertising revenues in video advertising to decline by 2.3 per cent to around €5.36 billion. TV advertising is set to shrink by 6 per cent to around €4.08 billion. For the instream video advertising segment, however, VAUNET forecasts continued growth in sales of 12 per cent to around €1.28 billion.

Revenue from paid audiovisual content and teleshopping in 2022

According to VAUNET’s forecast, revenue for paid content in 2022 is likely to rise by 8.2 per cent to about €6.73 billion. A small increase of 1 per cent to some €2.25 billion is expected in the pay TV sector. Paid video-on-demand is predicted to grow by around 13 per cent to about €2.81 billion, while revenue from audio-on-demand services is set to rise by around 11 per cent to about €1.67 billion. Teleshopping is likely to remain stable with revenue of some €2.3 billion.

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