There’s a new – and potentially major – revenue opportunity coming from a couple of satellite operators: SpaceX and AST SpaceMobile are both are planning to supply Direct-to-Device communications to ordinary ‘smart’ phones. An authoritative report from Analysis Mason’s Christopher Baugh outlines their challenges and pitfalls for SpaceX in particular.

Analysys Mason has developed dedicated software for telcos to help them understand the future impact of satellite constellations in their territories. T-Mobile is using the software for the upcoming trial of its D2D constellation in partnership with SpaceX.

SpaceX (and rivals AST SpaceMobile, Lynk Global and others including Apple/Globalstar) are planning hundreds of low Earth orbiting satellites to provide a network of aerial towers and thus enabling smart phones to operate within an operator’s ‘not-spots’ with highly desirable telephony.

Baugh explains the opportunity, saying: “Telecoms players are increasingly interested in D2D communication technology as an added element to their network and are focusing on evaluating network analytics and identifying partnerships.”

For example, SpaceX’s collaboration with T-Mobile in the US, which plays a crucial role for the future of D2D. “Since the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) granted experimental authorisation, SpaceX has launched over 100 satellites and tested speeds of 17Mbit/s, setting the stage for an accelerated launch schedule. The scale and momentum of the Starlink constellation, coupled with SpaceX’s launch cadence and economics, pave the way for the operator to extend its lead in the satellite broadband market to the satellite D2D market, says the report.

The SpaceX/T-Mobile partnership was established in 2022 and multiple MNOs have signed similar deals with SpaceX since then, including Entel in Chile and Peru, KDDI in Japan, One NZ in New Zealand, Optus in Australia, Rogers in Canada and Salt in Switzerland.

Baugh emphasises that SpaceX is not poised to become the winner in a ‘winner-take-all’ market because of the complexities and dependencies surrounding regulation, mobile value chains and spectrum uses. “Apple’s services delivered in partnership with Globalstar use MSS spectrum, as will Iridium’s 5G satellite services to standard phones. However, most other D2D players (including SpaceX) use MNOs’ spectrum, for which they need special permission.

Lynk Global and AST SpaceMobile were first to validate D2D messaging and broadband respectively using mobile spectrum through their in-orbit prototype satellites. These players have conducted numerous trials successfully and signed strategic deals with telecoms operators including major MNOs such as AT&T, Verizon and Vodafone.”

Analysys Mason says around 300 suitable Starlink satellites would provide an initial Direct-to-Cell service over the northern continental US (except for Alaska). However, SpaceX’s plans, says Baugh, call for 840+ suitable satellites and then comprehensive testing of:
• Smartphone-satellite distance. Between 525km (at 90-degree look angle) and 951km (30-degree look angle).
• Connection round-trip delay. Seven to 16 milliseconds for single-hop communication between a smartphone and a Starlink gateway.
• Visible satellites. Depending on location and time, visibility will vary. For instance, Dallas, Texas will have between 2 and 5 D2D satellites in line of sight, averaging three. Redmond, Washington will have between six and 10 satellites in line of sight, averaging 7.
• Satellite pass time and handoff rate. The maximum satellite pass time assuming 30 degrees of minimum
elevation for smartphones is 3 minutes and 20 seconds, resulting in a minimum handoff rate of 18 satellites
per hour.

The research says the actual results of the upcoming trial will mark a significant step towards realising the full potential of D2D technology. “The implications extend beyond convenience, offering solutions to one of the most pressing challenges in the telecoms industry: worldwide mobile coverage.”

Other posts by Chris Forrester:

1. Rivada: No hard news on funding
2. United Airlines will dump geo-satellites
3. AST SpaceMobile launched and ready to connect
4. AT&T boss: “Satellite constellations are great”
5. Starlink Texas factory capable of 4.68m terminals annually
6. Bank: Starlink facing multiple challenges
7. India stalls again on satellite licensing
8. Bank raises AST SpaceMobile target
9. AST SpaceMobile reaches $10bn market cap

Categories: Blogs, Inside Satellite, Satellite

Tags: AST SpaceMobile, d2d, spacex