IRIS2 subject to a major rethink
July 29, 2024
By Chris Forrester
It is widely accepted that the EU’s plan to build a low Earth orbiting constellation of satellites to rival that of SpaceX’s Starlink is in trouble. One reliable observer described the project as “fading away”. The EU’s IRIS² (Infrastructure for Resilience, Interconnectivity and Security by Satellite) scheme is seen as over-ambitious and thus too expensive. The problems in assembling the consortium needed to part-finance the project means that its planned schedule has already slipped.
The military grade and highly secure project was always envisioned as a Public-Private enterprise. Part of the funding would come from the European Space Agency but at least one nation (Germany) has expressed concern at the costs associated and what is seen as a bias in favour of France in how the project is structured.
Germany’s Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck, in a letter to the project’s Internal Market Commissioner Thierry Breton, earlier this year said that the “exorbitant” IRIS² programme should be put on ice and reconsidered.
Indeed, Germany’s Suddeutsche Zueitung newspaper on July 25th said the project was on the verge of collapse and the prospect of having hundreds of satellites in orbit by 2027 as having “stalled”.
The financing problems are key. An initial costing of €6 billion has ballooned to €11.4 billion, and prompted two major consortium members (Airbus Space and Thales Alenia) to threaten withdrawal and to be more straightforward suppliers to the SpaceRISE consortium. The Airbus and Thales letter to its fellow SpaceRISE member was blunt, stating: “[We have] come to the conclusion that the minimum requirements for a successful project under reasonable economic conditions and for the submission of a bid are not met.”
SpaceRISE, if the project continues, would manage the project for at least 12 years.
Michael Schoellhorn, who manages Airbus’s space division, speaking ahead of the Farnborough Airshow, confirmed that the two satellite builders would focus on building the SpaceRISE fleet, but would not participate in the financing.
The European Commission (EC) has set a new date of September 2nd as a deadline for SpaceRISE to submit a new set of proposals. The EC could – subject to the new numbers – issue a speedy approval on or about September 25th with contract signed the following week. The dates are not casually selected. Failure to sign by the dates would mean the project would fall outside of the Commission’s remit, and would have to be restarted with the risk of being scrapped.
Reports suggest that the SpaceRISE consortium would stump up $4.4 billion from three key satellite operators, SES, Eutelsat and Hispasat. A further $2.4 billion would come from assorted EU member states and €600 million from the European Space Agency. Simple arithmetic suggests that there’s a €4 billion hole in the project’s initial estimates and which suggests the rethink could be dramatic.
Christophe Grudler, a French MEP who has coordinated work on IRIS² for the European Parliament, has called the withdrawal decision from Airbus and Thales Alenia Space as “disrespectful” but adds that restarting the public contract from scratch is the solution he would want to avoid at all costs.
However, one industry watcher advised that a re-think is far from taboo noiting: “It is clear that Europe needs its own satellite constellation for communication services for its sovereignty.” And creating another consortium would take time.