AST SpaceMobile has enjoyed a spectacular rise in its share price over the past few days as enthusiasm for its target satellite–to–cellular service despite only having one test satellite in orbit. However, and despite much criticism, SpaceX’s Starlink might well steal AST’s thunder with its own satellite–based connectivity for smartphones.

Starlink is basing a portion of its space constellation on an expected service. Some observers say that the cost of connectivity – using T–Mobile subscribers – could be either free or at a very low cost in order to match existing and similar services from Apple/Globalstar.

But well–funded Starlink has a major hurdle in its way, an argument that its satellites are creating interference. It is far from clear that these interference issues can be resolved using existing Starlink technology. The FCC is having toexamine, and rule, on usage rights.

Meanwhile, and not waiting for the FCC, Starlink is launching three batches of its direct–to–cellular satellites, currently scheduled for August 22nd, August 24th and August 27th. These launches will allow SpaceX to initiate a commercial service later this year.

Meanwhile, AST is in the final days of pre–launch testing at SpaceX’s rocket site at Cape Canaveral where five of its BlueBird satellites are awaiting launch orbital positions, tested in orbit and this winter start a limited ‘beta’ test service for its major investor partners AT&T and Verizon around December.

Will these AST ‘beta’ tests be for certain consumers? Will there be charges for usage? Time will tell, but there’s little doubt from some analysts that the future looks rosy for AST. One significant investor, Hennessey Funds, in AST says they expect the embryonic business to evolve into a durable, high–quality company that will manage to achieve global significance.

Another, Scotia Bank, has upped its price target for AST shares to $28 and told clients on August 15th that “if the FCC stays firm on [Equivalent power flux density limit, EPFD] rules, AST could find itself as the sole licensed [Supplemental coverage from Space] player in the world’s richest telecom market, giving it a precious pioneering advantage; increasing target on faster customer loading and higher ARPU.”

UBS also upped its AST share price target to $30 on August 14th. In a presentation on August 2nd Japanese telco Rakuten promised it would start its own AST–based service in 2026. AT&T and Verizon, each significant investors in AST, have complained to the FCC and demanded that the FCC reject SpaceX’s plan for cellular connectivity. Their argument is that the two giant telcos have told the FCC that a SpaceX proposal to ensure robust coverage for its cellular Starlink system risks causing interference with their own terrestrial –and valuable – networks.

“Specifically, AT&T’s technical analysis shows that SpaceX’s proposal would cause an 18percent average reduction in network downlink throughput,” argued AT&T.

Verizon’s objections are similar, but add that Starlink “would subject incumbent, primary terrestrial licensee operations in adjacent bands to harmful interference.” Wireless phone performance will suffer, Verizon stated.

SpaceX is seeking a waiver of the EPFD rules, and thus to boost its power outputs. It told the FCC in a spirited response: “Indeed, each time that SpaceX has demonstrated that it would not cause harmful interference to other operators – often based on those parties’ own claimed assumptions – those competitors have moved the goalposts or have claimed their analysis should not have been trusted in the first place. These operators’ shapeshifting arguments and demands should be seen for what they are: last–minute attempts to block a more advanced supplemental coverage partnership and siphon sensitive information to aid their own competing efforts.”

Meanwhile, AST’s share price continues to increase. August 19th saw it rise 24.4 per cent, by $7.57, to $38.60.

Other posts by Chris Forrester:

1. Rivada: No hard news on funding
2. United Airlines will dump geo-satellites
3. AST SpaceMobile launched and ready to connect
4. AT&T boss: “Satellite constellations are great”
5. Starlink Texas factory capable of 4.68m terminals annually
6. Bank: Starlink facing multiple challenges
7. India stalls again on satellite licensing
8. Bank raises AST SpaceMobile target
9. AST SpaceMobile reaches $10bn market cap

Categories: Blogs, Inside Satellite, Mobile, Satellite

Tags: AST SpaceMobile, FCC, spacex, starlink, Verizon