September 12th saw a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket flawlessly launch five high-performance BlueBird satellites for AST SpaceMobile from Cape Canaveral. The five craft, once they are deployed safely in their correct orbits which itself will take a few weeks, will then be tested by about 2,000 testers scattered around the Earth and then commence beta-test transmissions for AST’s partners Verizon and AT&T in covering cellular ‘dead spots’ in the telco’s US coverage.

The five satellites, good as they are, are not sufficient to provide anything like a continuous or global coverage for AST’s 45-plus other partner telcos around the world. For that AST needs to initially launch at least another 17 satellites during Q1 next year, and then follow-on satellites building up to around 155 satellites by 2030. The plan is to launch at a rate of four-to-six per month, says AST. AST can supply to 4G and 5G smartphones for the likes of Vodafone, Rakuten, Google and dozens of other partners.

According to data from Deutsche Bank by 2026 AST will have around 4.7 million subscribers, plus 18 million broadband subscribers and a cumulative 94 million cellular users who will have bought an AST ‘day pass’ via one of its telco partners and where the user needs guaranteed access to cellular coverage. ‘First responders’ and emergency services are frequently operating in dead spots, and need AST coverage.

The bank’s latest report on AST, issued on September 3rd, says the operator will be cashflow positive in 2027 and in following years will be throwing of cash measured in the billions of dollars, and building to $3.5 billion of free cash by 2030.

These forecasts have helped the bank further upgrade its share price targets from $29.41 to $63 per share. AST’s share price closed on September 11th at $27.90.

Another enthusiastic partner in AST is American Tower, an investor in AST, and their vision is that AST will not only serve cellular customers in the dead spots but will save them millions if not billions of dollars in building cellular towers in rural and isolated spots and to ‘connect the unconnected’. Indeed, AT&T at the launch that users today are often frustrated when they find they have no connection, and customers are increasingly demanding not just for text or voice but for full-service broadband. AST is planning to fulfil those needs.

The launch of these first five BlueBird satellites are AST’s Mark 1 (or Block 1) versions and some 700 sq ft in area. The Block 2 versions, which will start launching in Q1/2025 are significantly larger and thus more capable in terms of land-mass coverage and connectivity. The Block 2s are three times the size of the Block 1 versions. Once in space the AST satellites will be the largest-ever craft launched to low Earth orbit.

Other posts by Chris Forrester:

1. European telcos unite against Starlink D2C
2. Rivada insists “deadlines will be met”
3. Ergen will gain “greatest opportunity” by losing DISH
4. Rivada’s latest problems could be fatal
5. SES confirms 25c dividend
6. Intelsat gets licence to rescue Galaxy 25
7. Bank downgrades Virgin Galactic
8. EchoStar fails to find extra cash
9. Rivada: More trouble to come?

Categories: Blogs, Broadband, Inside Satellite, Satellite

Tags: AST SpaceMobile, Deutsche Bank