An update from AST SpaceMobile (AST) on November 14th supplied many hard facts as to the satellite operator’s plans. New satellite launches, added to the five already in orbit, will potentially eliminate the planet’s ‘dead spots’ for cellular users. Subsequently, a major bank report has endorsed AST’s prospects as the world’s first global cellular network.

The plans will also eliminate the need for expensive dedicated satellite phones, which were only good for ‘line of sight’ connectivity. They are extremely expensive to use but to date have been the only solution for military and first-responders whether in the middle of the ocean, up in the air or deep in remote areas.

The key news to emerge from AST’s update were orders for rocket launches, with contracts going to Jeff Bezos-backed Blue Origin and its New Glenn powerful vehicle. AST’s President Scott Wisniewski said the company now has enough “contractually secured orbital launch capacity during 2025 and 2026 to enable continuous cellular broadband service coverage of the AST SpaceMobile network.”

The powerful New Glenn rocket is needed because AST’s next-generation ‘Block 2’ satellites are huge, each with a 2400 sq. ft. communications array. The first New Glenn will launch before the end of this year although the other satellites – up to 60 – will launch during 2025 and 2026 and use a mix of New Glenn and SpaceX’s rockets.

“Taken all together, the launch agreements […] and likely others as well in the future, gives us increased confidence that we can achieve our network deployment goals,” CEO Abel Avellan said on the earnings call.

AST has been testing signals to and from the existing satellites and is generating successful download speeds above 21 Mb/s.

The update prompted a fresh look at AST by analysts at investment bank Scotiabank which stays supportive of AST (with a ‘BUY’ rating) although a modest reduction of its target share price to $44.70 (from $45.90). The bank’s report says that “based on the current monetisation outlook, once AST hits 25 satellites (it already has five and funding to pay for the other 20), it will generate sufficient pre-capex cash flow to pay for the extra 25-35 units needed to hit continuous service in the US, Europe and Japan”.

The bank highlights AST’s statement that the initial 50 or 60 satellites needed for those continuous services will provide services to “hundreds of millions of potential customers”.

The bank also looks forward beyond 2030 by when AST should have around 355 satellites deployed, and growing to 475 in orbit by 2032. Its forecasts suggest 720 million subscribers by 2030 and 1.1 billion by 2032. These ‘subscribers’ will be in partnership with many of the world’s leading telcos where a revenue split of around 50/50 is likely.

Another bank, UBS, in its November 15th report gives AST a price target of $31 and a ‘BUY’ recommendation.

Other posts by Chris Forrester:

1. AT&T explains AST SpaceMobile strategy
2. ESA introduces Fair Return structure
3. New EU space boss explains strategy
4. Eutelsat suffers from negative bank report
5. MultiChoice, eMedia make peace
6. Eutelsat criticised over “Kremlin links”
7. Rivada Space “still working” with Terran Orbital
8. D2D: Power levels concerns
9. Terran Orbital hit with Class Action

Categories: Blogs, Broadband, Inside Satellite, Satellite

Tags: AST SpaceMobile, Blue Origin