Forecast: Global streaming subs to surpass 2bn by 2029
December 9, 2024
With paid streaming totalling 1.8 billion subscriptions today, Ampere Analysis predicts over 2 billion subs will be taken up globally by 2029.
This milestone will be achieved by combining US streaming giants’ international expansion and success at minimising password sharing.
Further key highlights from the analysis:
- The milestone will come less than a decade after global streaming subscriptions surpassed one billion at the height of the pandemic. Stay-at-home orders caused a historical peak of 282 million new streaming sign-ups in the year 2020
- The Asia Pacific region will be significant for subscriber growth over the next five years as the more developed US market becomes increasingly saturated
- The current trajectory is a marked slow-down in subscriber growth compared to the previous five years when global subscriptions doubled from 2019 to 2024. Streamers will have to work hard to reengage growth in less saturated markets, investing in marketing and locally relevant content, if they are to beat the 2 billion figure earlier than 2029
- Subscription streaming revenues are expected to grow almost three times faster than subscribers. Ampere expects over 30 per cent growth by 2029 as services focus on profitability and per-subscriber monetisation
- Netflix has led several initiatives to solidify long-term revenue growth in saturated streaming markets, creating an ad revenue stream and tackling password-sharing. Disney+ and Max have additionally taken the bold strategy of bundling
- Soon to be the largest contributing segment to the global TV economy, subscription streamers will generate almost $170 billion (€160.8bn) annually in 2029 from paid subscriptions. From this, Netflix will claim a 29 per cent market share
- Subscription streaming is expected to generate an additional $22 billion from ad sales as traditionally ad-free streaming services have pivoted to ad-tiers
- By 2029, the annual revenue of the global subscription streaming market will be over $190 billion.
Maria Dunleavey, Research Manager at Ampere Analysis, commented: “The global streaming market is poised to generate $190 billion annually from two billion paid subscriptions by 2029. Key strategic developments, like Netflix’s account-sharing crackdown and cheaper ad tier offer, and rivals Disney+ and Max’s aggressive approach to bundling, are driving revenue growth in saturated streaming markets.”
“Targeting the untapped Asia Pacific region is the most promising strategy for subscriber growth. To surpass current subscriber expectations, streamers must double down on strategic investments in less saturated markets. India was Netflix’s second-largest subscriber growth market in 2024, and the company has barely scratched the surface there in terms of growth potential,” Dunleavey concluded.