Advanced Television

Forecast: 27,000 satellites in orbit by 2030

January 14, 2025

By Chris Forrester

The authoritative McKinsey satellite market projections have seen significant developments and deviations based on the trends up to 2024 as the number of active satellites exceeded 9,100, growing faster than anticipated. Launch volumes are now trending toward the higher end of 3,500–4,500 annually, already approaching the projected 2030 ‘maintenance demand’ range.

The McKinsey study looked at three potential scenarios. The first considered that demand drops due to satellites in orbit lives being much longer than deployment times. This scenario forecasts that the replacement cycle could fall to between 1,000-2,500 satellites annually.

The second ‘Base’ scenario sees initial satellite deployments completed and then replacements fall to a steady state over the long term. This picture results in a maximum of 5,000 satellites launched in the 2027-2028 period but resulting in a total of some 27,000 satellites in orbit.

The third forecast – McKinsey’s high prediction – sees steady growth in demand up to the 2030 timeframe and seeing around 15,000 launched towards the end of this decade.

These forecasts don’t include activity from Russia and China, both of which have their own broadband satellite services planned.

Categories: Articles, Markets, Research, Satellite

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