According to Digital TV Research Ltd (DTVR), pay-TV revenues will climb to $173 billion in 2016, up by $49 billion on 2006 but only up by $18 billion (12 per cent) on 2010. The Digital TV World Revenue Forecasts report – covering 73 countries – suggests that on-demand revenues will increase much faster than subscription revenues, though on-demand will only reach $5.7 billion (or 3.3 per cent of the total) by 2016.
“Subscription revenues will stutter as more homes convert to bundles, thus reducing TV-related income,” notes report author Simon Murray. “DTH [DBS] revenues will overtake cable TV revenues in 2011. DTH revenues will reach $86 billion in 2016, up from $71 billion in 2010. DTH will command nearly half the total revenues by 2016, up from 43 per cent in 2006.”
The US will remain DTH market leader, notes DTVR, although its share of the total will fall from 54 per cent in 2006 to 41 per cent in 2016. Brazil will add the most DTH revenues ($3.1 billion) between 2010 and 2016 – more than doubling its total in the process.
Cable TV will begin its slide during 2011, with revenues falling by $7 billion between 2010 and 2016 to $69 billion. However, cable operators will gain extra revenues by converting subscribers to bundles.
Digital cable TV revenues will climb from $43 billion in 2010 to $62 billion in 2016 – a greater increase than DTH. China will add $4.3 billion in digital cable TV revenues over the same period, followed by Japan with an extra $2.6 billion. By contrast, analogue cable TV revenues will decline by $26 billion between 2010 and 2016 to reach only $7 billion in 2016. India will provide $2 billion of the 2016 total.
IPTV revenues will climb to $17 billion in 2016, up from $6 billion in 2010 and less than $1 billion in 2006. The US will remain the largest IPTV revenue earner by taking a quarter of the 2016 total (down from a third in 2010).
Pay DTT revenues reached $1,572 million in 2010, and will slowly grow to $2.3 billion in 2016. Italy will supply almost a half of the 2016 total.
“The US will remain the world’s largest pay-TV revenue earner by some distance. However, its revenues will fall by nearly $3 billion between 2010 and 2016 as homes convert to bundles and as competition increases. On the other hand, Brazil’s revenues will more than double over the same period, with India also enjoying impressive growth,” Murray predicts.