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A comprehensive 19-page report from equity analysts at Deutsche Bank (DB) takes a close look at the world’s three major DTH satellite operators, and doesn’t much care for what it finds.
DB examines Intelsat, SES and Eutelsat and comes to the conclusion that “video growth will slow”.
“Our concern is not that TV platforms will abandon satellite altogether. Satellite’s cost advantage over DSL will remain for a long time. But rather linear TV channel launches will slow on satellite as more investment is directed to on-demand/OTT, while compression and time-shifted channel closures will more than offset incremental UHD demand,” states Laurie Davison of DB.
He argues that none of the ‘Big Three’ grew their revenues other than benefits from currency fluctuations or termination fees. “The core video income stream, where broken out, was flat or down, in spite of continued HD penetration.”
Davison’s view is that despite the growth in demand that will inevitably come from new Ultra-HDTV channels, this growth will be offset by the closure of niche linear channels currently broadcasting in Standard Definition and “as more investment is directed to on-demand/OTT while [further] compression and time-shifted channel closures.”