Sky Deutschland will report its Q3 numbers on November 5th. A note to clients by investment bank Berenberg says investors should expect quarterly revenues to grow to about €390 million (up from €331 million same period last year) and ARPU of €34.40 a month (€32.22).
Sky Deutschland should also now start enjoying revenues from its recent carriage agreement with Deutsche Telekom (DT) although these benefits will “not have made much impact” on Q3’s numbers, says the bank. Overall, the market is expecting net additions to be around the 81,000 mark, with HDTV growth remaining solid. The market consensus sees Sky Deutschland adding a net 365,000-370,000 subs for the year as a whole, which means that for its fourth quarter Sky Deutschland will have to add around 185,000 (and last year’s Q4 saw 151,000 net additions).
“Churn should be starting to drop, in our view, given the higher penetration of Sky+ boxes,” adds the bank’s report. “Also worth noting is the fact that customers no longer have the ability to churn from Sky Deutschland to take football via DT on a discounted basis. The move to two-year contracts will not yet be having any effect on churn, however: that will be felt in 2014. We forecast 12.7 per cent quarterly annualised churn, or 11.8 per cent on a rolling 12-month basis.”