A Frost & Sullivan (F&S) report (Global Space Industry Outlook Analysis for 2019 and Beyond) says that the total revenue opportunities for the global satellite manufacturing market will soar past $366 billion (€330.2bn) by 2030, with global launch demand for 12,766 satellites and cumulative launch opportunities of $102.52 billion.
According to Arun Kumar Sampathkumar, Industry Manager/Space, at F&S, the space industry is rapidly evolving. Not only are satellite platforms becoming more agile and robust with the execution of software-based satellites, electric propulsion systems and spot beam offerings, but competition in the launch services market is lowering prices and new entrants with mega-constellation-based business models are poised to disrupt the connectivity and earth observation market.
“Currently, there is a clear gap between satellite launch demand and the supply of launch services with an average launch wait period of six months to two years for satellite operators. However, more than 40 global new participants are developing launch vehicles to bridge this gap,” says F&S.
Sampathkumar continued by adding that, in the smallsat launch segment, the major unmet needs include on-demand launch, independent mission from the primary launch payload, and launch costs. Due to the existing gap between supply and launch, the launch service market is price inelastic. However, with the entry of new vehicles and reusable capabilities, launch supply is likely to increase and will lead the market towards price sensitivity.
“Downstream data pressures have meant that communication satellites represent the fastest growing market segment, increasing demand for the manufacture of high-throughput and constellation communication satellites.” Sampathkumar sees multiple incumbents and new participants looking to install their high-capacity communication satellites in Geostationary Earth Orbit (GEO), Medium Earth Orbit (MEO), and Low Earth Orbit (LEO) orbits. This will result in both new installation and recurring replacement mission demand for manufacturing communication satellites.