Advanced TV revenues are forecast to grow by a 5 per cent growth rate from 2019 to 2025 to $22 billion, according the new DSCC Quarterly Advanced TV Shipment and Forecast Report. The report covers the worldwide premium TV market, including the most advanced TV technologies: WOLED, QD Display, QDEF, Dual Cell LCD and MiniLED with 4K and 8K resolution. This quarter’s update adds MicroLED to our forecast, as well as rollable OLED TVs.
The report defines an Advanced TV as any TV with an advanced display technology feature, including all OLED TVs, 8K LCD TVs and all LCD TVs with quantum dot technology. The historical data in the report allows analysis by feature for advanced LCD TVs.
The historical data for OLED TV includes only one product configuration, LGD’s White-OLED (WOLED) technology, but the forecast in the report includes QD Display, which designates QD OLED and successor technologies such as QNED and EL-QLED, as well as Rollable OLED and MicroLED starting this quarter. Our forecast for MicroLED TV is based on product sizes less than 100”, as products in larger sizes such as Samsung’s 146” The Wall belong in a different category than ‘TV’.
Advanced TV shipments in Q2/2020 were flat Q/Q and increased by 12 per cent Y/Y at 2.2 million units. The largest screen sizes recorded bigger gains, with 75” Advanced LCD TVs up 29 per cent and 77” OLED TVs up 100 per cent compared to a year ago. Smaller QDEF TVs (under 49”) were introduced in 2019 and these sizes are growing rapidly from a low base in terms of unit shipments, with 111 per cent growth Y/Y in Q2.
From a revenue perspective, Q2 disappointed with revenues declining 20 per cent Y/Y as price declines overwhelmed volume increases. Even the largest TVs showed revenue declines, with 75” LCD down 12 per cent and >75” LCD TV down 15 per cent. Advanced LCD TV revenues for 55” declined by 14 per cent Y/Y, and 55” OLED TV revenues declined by 38 per cent Y/Y in Q1. Across all screen sizes and resolutions, OLED TV revenues declined by 29 per cent Y/Y in Q1, while Advanced LCD TV revenues decreased by 15 per cent.
The report’s pivot tables allow analysis of brand share by screen size, region, technology, resolution and other variables. In Q2 2020, among all Advanced TV products Samsung increased unit shipments by 52 per cent Y/Y, increasing its unit share to 61 per cent by expanding its QDEF product line into more affordable models. TCL and Hisense Advanced LCD TV shipments declined Y/Y. In OLED TV, the top three global brands (LG, Sony, and Panasonic) increased shipments Y/Y, but smaller players TPV/Philips and Skyworth saw shipments decline Y/Y.
Samsung also leads the industry in revenue share for Advanced TV, as shown in the next chart here, but Samsung’s revenue share of 54 per cent in Q1 is lower than its unit share, since QDEF sells at a discount to OLED TV in the screen sizes where they compete. LG has sustained the #2 position in revenue share, and regained 5 share points in Q1 after some share erosion during 2019. LG’s revenue share in Q1 of 24 per cent was a slight decrease from their 25 per cent share in Q1 2019. Sony sustained the #3 position in brand revenue with 8 per cent share, consistent with its share a year ago, but down from a 9 per cent share in Q4 2019.
The report divides worldwide shipments into eight geographic regions, and up to now Western Europe and North America have been the largest regions for Advanced TV. These two regions represented a combined 64 per cent and 65 per cent of Advanced TV units and revenue in Q1 2020. Shipments to Western Europe increased 38 per cent Y/Y in Q1 2020, but revenues increased only 2 per cent Y/Y. Shipments to North America increased 66 per cent Y/Y and revenues increased 21 per cent Y/Y, while China shipments increased by 21 per cent Y/Y but revenues declined by 9 per cent.
In Western Europe, Samsung continued to lead in Q1 2020 with 63 per cent unit share but this has fallen from a peak of 68 per cent in Q1 2019. Samsung’s revenue share in this region is only 52 per cent as OLED TV sells at premium prices in Europe, and Samsung’s advantage in larger sizes means less to European consumers. LGE regained unit share to 21 per cent in Q1 2020, and took 27 per cent revenue share with premium OLED TV prices. Sony has been able to sustain a double-digit revenue share in Europe with an attractive OLED TV product line, but Panasonic and Philips have seen their positions erode to low-single digits.