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Forecast: 60,000 passengers into space by 2031

January 12, 2022

By Chris Forrester

A study from analysts at Northern Sky Research (NSR) suggests that by 2031 some 57,500 passengers will be taking a trip into space. The value of this space tourism and orbital travel will capture the majority of an overall cumulative $20.3 billion in related revenues.

The numbers come from NSR’s Space Tourism & Travel Markets, report finds the rapid growth seen in the Space Tourism & Travel Markets driven by a growing commercial passenger interest, along with government funding and demand.

As the most stable and lucrative segment through 2031, Orbital Travel is set to capture 66 per cent of total revenue opportunity. Orbital Travel has strong government support with initiatives such as the Commercial Crew programme and commercial company led Space Station development. High ticket prices, coupled with very strong demand, results in a fast-growing market, even amongst delays, says NSR.

“Orbital Travel continues to advance, shaped by government market support, though it will take some time for other markets to reach their stride,” notes report NSR Co-author Dallas Kasaboski. “Delays and missed milestones are common and will continue given the high-costs and risks of developing human flight capabilities, yet across the field, opportunities are on the rise.”

With increasing interest in Parabolic flights as a training ground for other segments, such as suborbital & orbital, this market will fly most passengers through the decade. Such multi-vertical collaborations now build the foundations for emerging markets, diversifying revenue opportunity towards future gains,

With missions already in development, interest is mounting in the nascent Beyond Earth market, seeing significant longer-term revenue opportunity with early engagement driving progress.

“The emerging Beyond Earth segment has already received substantial investment to take people to the Moon and back,” adds report NSR Co-author Hussain Bokhari. “While likely to be developed with government Astronauts in mind and shaped by trends in that sector, commercial opportunities will be significant.”

With each market milestone successfully achieved, commercial and government interest grows. Space Tourism & Travel Markets will move quickly with diverse opportunities for engagement and development. The sector is definitely one to watch, concludes NSR.

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