Advanced Television

Forecast: NZ fixed comms service revenue to grow

October 30, 2023

The total fixed communication services revenue in New Zealand is expected to increase at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.6 per cent from $1.4 billion (€1.3bn) in 2023 to $1.5 billion in 2028, supported by the growth in the fixed broadband segment, forecasts GlobalData, the data and analytics company.

An analysis of GlobalData’s New Zealand Fixed Communication Model indicates that the fixed voice services revenue will decline at a CAGR of 0.2 per cent over 2023-2028, due to continued losses in its circuit switched subscriptions and steady drop in fixed voice average revenue per subscriber (ARPU) levels.

Aasif Iqbal, Telecom Analyst at GlobalData, commented: “Fixed broadband services revenue on the other hand will increase at a CAGR of 2.1 per cent during 2023-2028, driven by the projected rise in the FTTH and fixed wireless subscriptions. Government and operators’ efforts in expanding fixed broadband network, especially fiber optic networks, will also drive the fixed broadband service adoption in the country.

GlobalData estimates that the fibre optic lines will account for the majority, ie 69.5 per cent of the total broadband lines in 2028, supported by the rising demand for high-speed broadband connectivity in the country and operators’ focus on expanding their fiber-optic networks and increasing their FTTH user base.

For instance, operator Chorus intends to shut down its copper network and switch entirely to fibre optics by 2026.  The operator is also in the process of extending its fibre optic network to 10,000 premises beyond its Ultra-Fast Broadband (UFB) zones.

Iqbal concluded: “Vector Communications will lead the fixed voice services segment in terms of subscriptions in 2023, given its strong foothold in the VoIP segment. Spark New Zealand will lead the fixed broadband services market in 2023, supported by its strong presence in the DSL and FTTH segment. Also, in order to add new subscriptions, Spark is seen offering unlimited fibre broadband plans at different price points with free Standard Netflix and McAfee Security subscriptions, and other exclusive deals on music, movies, sports, and other content.”

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