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Global pay-TV revenues for 138 countries will only grow by $99 million (€87.5m) between 2015 and 2021 to $205.92 billion; having peaked in 2018. This follows 19.5 per cent growth between 2010 and 2015, according to the Digital TV Revenue Forecasts report.
North American pay-TV revenues will fall by $13.5 billion between 2015 and 2021. Cord-cutting is responsible for some of this loss, but greater competition and conversion to bundles (with the lower revenues for TV than standalone offers) are more pressing factors. Western Europe will be flat at $31 billion.
Simon Murray, Principal Analyst at Digital TV Research, said: “Most of the rest of the world will not follow the North American experience. True, pay TV revenues will fall in 27 countries between 2015 and 2021, but not to the same extent as in Canada and the US. Most countries are nowhere near the market maturity achieved in North America.”
Excluding North America, pay-TV revenues will climb by $13.6 billion (up by 14 per cent) between 2015 and 2021 to $107.82 billion, having recorded $20 billion growth (up by 28 per cent) between 2010 and 2015. North America’s share of the global total will fall from 57.4 per cent in 2010 to 54.2 per cent in 2015 and 47.6 per cent in 2021.
Asia Pacific revenues will grow by $8 billion (up by 25 per cent) between 2015 and 2021 to $40 billion. Asia Pacific overtook Western Europe in 2014, and will be larger than the whole of Europe by 2019.
Revenues will rocket by 63 per cent (up by $2.5 billion) in the Sub-Saharan Africa region and by 26 per cent (up by $1.0 billion) in Middle East & North Africa between 2015 and 2021. Sub-Saharan Africa will pass MENA in 2016.
Pay-TV revenues in Eastern Europe will be 40 per cent higher in 2021 ($5,970 million) than in 2010 ($4,271 million). However, the revenue increase will only be 9.9 per cent between 2015 and 2021. Latin America will add a further $1.6 billion (up by only 9.1 per cent) between 2015 and 2021.
Revenues will decline for 27 countries between 2015 and 2021. However, revenues will more than double for a further 19 countries during that period. Most of the fast-growth nations by percentage increase will be in Africa, with Myanmar, Laos, Oman and Bangladesh providing exceptions. India’s revenues will climb by $3.5 billion between 2015 and 2021 to $7.8 million, with China up by $1.9 billion to $11.7 billion.