A report from investment bank Jefferies says that despite Vivendi’s plan to spin-off its Universal Music Group (UMG) before the end of the year – and to distribute 60 per cent of the new share capital to existing Vivendi shareholders – their overall view is that Vivendi’s current share price is “fully valued”.
“Even adopting an optimistic view on UMG’s growth/margin prospects, we argue that UMG fair value is ~€32 billion, modestly above the €30 billion minimum set by Vivendi’s Board,” says Jefferies.
There are elements which might somewhat change this view. For example, Le Monde (on February 10th) suggested Lagardère’s Europe 1 radio station is for sale with Vivendi potentially interested. BFM (on February 12th) also suggested Vivendi interest in the M6 channel. Recently Vivendi acquired Prisma Media (~€200 million), a French publisher, and a 9.9 per cent stake in PRISA (~€70 million), a Spanish media conglomerate, adds the bank’s note.
Vivendi’s interest in Canal+ could also benefit from the French football Ligue 1 rights turmoil.
“Having held out from the recent re-auction of domestic football rights for 2021/22, Canal+ was awarded the 8 weekly Ligue 1 games vacated by Mediapro for just €35 million. Canal+ looks well-placed to secure post-2021/22 rights when they are re-auctioned in the next few months. There is no evidence of serious competing bid interest. Sub-licensing deals with BeIN Sport diffuse competitive tension on that front,” adds Jefferies.