Forecast: China 48% of APAC online video revenue in 2022
July 26, 2022
Analysis released by Media Partners Asia (MPA) indicates that total Asia Pacific online video industry revenue will grow by 16 per cent year-on-year in 2022 to reach $49.2 billion (€48.3bn), according to the Asia Pacific Online Video & Broadband Distribution 2022 report. SVoD will contribute 50 per cent; UGC AVoD, 37 per cent and Premium AVoD, 13 per cent.
The industry is to grow at an 8 per cent CAGR to reach $72.7 billion in 2027, with SVoD:AVoD ratios remaining stable. Ex-China, the APAC online video industry will grow 24 per cent in 2022 to reach $25.6 billion in revenue with SVoD contributing 47 per cent; UGC AVoD, 43 per cent; and Premium AVoD, 10 per cent. Ex-China APAC online video revenues are forecast to grow at a CAGR of 11 per cent to $42.8 billion by 2027, with SVoD at 44 per cent; UGC AVoD, 43 per cent and Premium AVoD, 13 per cent.
MPA executive director, Vivek Couto, commented: “Investors are increasingly focused on enhanced scale, improved monetisation and real profitability across global, local and regional online video platforms. In this context, the role of Asia Pacific continues to have a critical role in the future of the global online video industry. The region remains the largest growth contributor to global online video customers and users today and is emerging as a significant contributor to revenue growth. With the US and Europe fast maturing and China inaccessible, APAC’s large markets – India, Indonesia, Japan, Korea and Thailand – will be increasingly important to global platforms. Each of these markets require local content and distribution strategies with long-term investment.”
KEY MARKETS
China, APAC’s largest market, will generate $11.2 billion in revenue in 2022, representing 48 per cent of the APAC online video revenue pie. Two long-form platforms Tencent Video and iQIYI, and two short-form video players ByteDance and Kuaishou lead, will capture ~70 per cent of China’s online video revenue in 2022. Despite regulatory hurdles and market maturity, China will remain APAC’s largest online video market, growing at a CAGR of 5 per cent over 2022-27 to top $30 billion or 42 per cent of the APAC online video revenue pie, by 2027.
Australia is a high revenue generating online video market. SVoD has reached maturity with household penetration at 85 per cent in 2022, higher than even the US globally.
Japan and Korea house high-ARPU and relatively high-CPM audiences, with significant growth potential as SVoD penetration of households is not yet saturated at 49 per cent and 42 per cent respectively. Content from Japan and Korea have proven global travelability, allowing local content investment to be monetised internationally by multi-market players. Ex-China, Japan is APAC’s largest OTT revenue market, generating $9.7 billion in 2022.
India’s streaming OTT video market is in its second growth phase with total revenues of $3 billion in 2022 expected to more than double to almost $7 billion by 2027. Competitive intensity is set to grow between global giants and newly capitalised local players. Telco reach remains critical in the market along with AVoD business models and low-ARPU, high volume SVoD services.
Indonesia is Southeast Asia’s largest online video market, generating close to $1 billion in revenue in 2022 with advertising contributing 62 per cent and subscription 38 per cent. The premium video sector (SVoD and premium advertising inventory) has emerged as a material revenue generator. Five major players – Netflix, Vidio, Disney+ Hotstar, MNC Digital and Viu – will account for 75 per cent of premium video revenue in 2022.
Thailand’s online video industry is forecast to generate $809 million in revenue in 2022. Thailand’s accessible and sizeable content creation ecosystem has historically had stronger production values than other Southeast Asian markets, positioning the market for a potentially transformational period as streamers such as Netflix, Disney+ Hotstar, WeTV, Viu and others scale local content investment.
TAM & PARTNERSHIPS
The total addressable market (TAM) for high-speed broadband continues to expand rapidly in the Asia Pacific with greater 4G, 5G and fibre-enabled connectivity. Ex-China, combined 4G and 5G users will reach 78 per cent of the population across APAC in 2022 while fibre driven fixed broadband penetration will reach 31 per cent. Telcos, connected TV operators and pay-TV operators remain important aggregators of SVoD, freemium and AVoD services, contributing between 20-80 per cent to OTT video platform reach, depending on the market. Rising CTV penetration and big screen consumption is helping fuel advertising growth across YouTube and premium AVoD platforms, led by BVoD players in particular, while also bolstering demand and monetisation at SVoD platforms.
KEY PLATFORMS
According to MPA analysis, 20 online video platforms will account for 67 per cent of the total APAC online video revenue pie.
YouTube leads with an estimated 42 per cent share of the APAC ex-China AVoD pie in 2022. Meta Video is also sizable. Both YouTube and Meta are being challenged by China’s ByteDance, which owns and operates TikTok in international markets. TikTok’s consumption continues to soar in Southeast Asia in particular with its short videos and monetisation is building. YouTube still dominates in Japan and Korea.
In the global SVoD category in APAC, Netflix, Disney and Prime Video lead. According to MPA, the three players will have a 56 per cent share in aggregate of the APAC ex-China SVoD pie in 2022 with Netflix at 33 per cent; Prime Video, 12 per cent; and Disney+ (including Disney+ Hotstar) at 11 per cent.
Netflix established an early lead given its launch and expansion in APAC after 2015-16 and success with premium Korean and Japanese content in particular. Its share of revenues has declined however from 35 per cent in 2021. Disney+ and Disney+ Hotstar services are building scale, local content investment and monetisation in markets such as Australia, India, Indonesia, and Thailand while also expanding in high ARPU, strong local markets such as Japan. A third of revenues come from India however, where it has recently lost digital rights to the highly successful IPL cricket franchise to Viacom18. Prime Video leads the Japan SVoD category while also growing rapidly in India and is now set to expand in key Southeast Asia markets in Q4 2022.
In the local and regional category, successful platforms are emerging in Australia, Indonesia, Japan, and Korea. Indonesia’s Vidio, owned by Emtek’s SCMA Group, is leveraging content production synergies and a library of popular local entertainment content and sports rights, to drive a potentially large scale SVoD business. Australia’s Stan is on a similar SVoD trajectory but faces greater competition from global giants and is more reliant on licensed and acquired content.
In Korea, Tving from CJ ENM and Wavve from SK Telecom and Korea’s major FTA networks, have also reached a level of SVoD scale but consolidation in the market is likely. Consolidation is also likely to occur in Japan where Hulu Japan and UNext have emerged as important local SVoD platforms.
BVoD, led by 9Now and 7Plus in Australia, is an important category helping to drive premium video advertising growth while also enabling TV broadcasters to expand online with a potential high margin business. The same applies to TVer in Japan, owned by Japan’s five largest TV networks. Indonesia and Thailand have significant BVoD potential.
In Southeast Asia, Viu is a major proxy for premium advertising growth and a freemium business model. Ad-supported SVoD models will launch across Asia Pacific in 2023-24, led by Netflix and Disney+.
In India, new local players with deep pockets are gearing up to grab market share, led by a newly recapitalised Viacom18, backed by strategics Reliance, Bodhi Tree and Paramount while domestic incumbents Zee and Sony are merging to create a strong TV / online video business. Going forward, Viacom18’s new streaming platform, leveraging IPL cricket and local entertainment, will emerge as an important player in the AVoD space in particular, grabbing material share over time as it leverages massive reach via Jio mobile and connected TV.