A report from investment bankers Morgan Stanley says that Russian advertising is on the rebound, and they now have confidence that it can grow “at least” 20 per cent this year. Perhaps helping is their statement that digital switch over, officially set for 2015 in Russia “seems very remote”.
As far as TV advertising is concerned the bank expects TV advertising to grow around 33 per cent this year, compared to last year’s much weaker performance. 1Q/2011 saw growth of an impressive 29 per cent. CTC Media, which has much of its broadcasting business in Russia, declares its results later this week on August 5, and this will provide another indicator as to how the recovery is progressing.
The bank’s report states that the recent annual ‘upfronts’ (where ad-minutes are pre-sold) shows above average visibility for its forecasts. “While Internet is clearly growing faster (+140 per cent since 2008), TV is continuing to maintain market share (+8 per cent vs Russian market -3 per cent). While visible in some other markets, TV is expected to retain >50 per cent share in next five years due to the limitations of other media and underdeveloped online infrastructure (measurement, e-commerce, distribution, limited fast broadband, etc). This limits online to 16 per cent of advertising in 2015 according to Video International, although this will reach >20 per cent quickly thereafter. The debate over audience fragmentation/digital VOD etc. is still some time away and the prospect of digital switchover in 2015 appears remote,” says the bank.