Advanced Television

OTT will represent 17% of viewing in 2016

March 26, 2012

In 2016, OTT video services on connected TV will represent 17 per cent of the total OTT market and 1 per cent of the global fixed video services market says French researcher IDATE.

“In 2016, the VoD market for the TV will be dominated by Over-The-Top (OTT) offers. In Europe, we estimate the global market for OTT video services on connected TVs at 2.4 billion Euros in 2016, with Europe and North America representing respectively 17 per cent and 54 per cent”, says Jacques Bajon. “Managed network players – cable and IPTV providers, for instance – are holding one of the key drivers for the Connected TV market development. They can continue their strategy of service distribution or open massively their networks to over-the-top services giving a boost to their commercial offers.”

IDATE estimates that the global market of services on connected TVs will reach €2.4 billion in 2016. This market will represent 16.7 per cent of the OTT video market and about 1 per cent of the global fixed video services market. These figures correspond to its overall analysis of the deployment of connected TV services, which concluded that the conditions for the launch of new services are still not completely met in early 2012 and sets the likely date of the market take-off at 2015.

IDATE further anticipates that paid services will play a leading role in the development of connected TV services. “We are indeed currently nearing the end of a double phenomenon known as cord-cutting (in which consumers will combine free access to linear television via digital terrestrial and satellite with a fee-consumption via OTT services) and cord-shaving (in which consumers will scrap their paid cable and IPTV plans for low cost OTT offers or a limited consumption of VOD services). Globally, we believe that the paid services will represent 57 per cent of the market for video services on connected TV,” says IDATE.

With respect to advertising revenue, IDATE believes that they will be primarily derived from the operation of premium programmes. Consumption of short programmes and of UGC contents is likely to remain largely limited to PCs, smartphones and tablets.

Given the pioneer position of the United States with respect to attractive OTT service offerings, we predict that they will remain the largest market for connected TV services, harbouring up to 50 per cent of the total market.

IDATE concludes that the overall development of OTT offerings, in particular on connected TV, will significantly affect the linear TV market, and in different proportions depending on the region.
“In the US, we anticipate a decrease of this market, due in particular to the reduced rates of pay television in the wake of competition from OTT services. However, over the period, we expect a growth of the global market (both linear television and new services) at current currency values, but probably a decrease in real terms. We believe in particular that the market could shrink towards the end of the period,” it says.

“We anticipate a more favorable development in Europe. On the one hand, in developed European markets, we believe there is still some growth potential for pay TV and that the level of prices will limit the impact of competition on linear TV offers. On the other hand, Central and Eastern European countries offer a high growth potential.

Outside these areas and Japan, the development of OTT offers, which will come later, will not weigh on the growth of the traditional broadcasting market over that period.”

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