Based on forecasts for 80 countries, pay TV revenues will climb to $200 billion in 2017, up by $23 billion on 2011 but up by only $2 billion (1 per cent) on 2016, according to a new report from Digital TV Research. The forecasts are based on subscription and on-demand revenues.
The Digital TV World Revenue Forecasts report concludes that DTH (DBS) revenues will overtake cable TV revenues in 2015. DTH revenues will reach $91 billion in 2017, up from $76 billion in 2011.
Simon Murray, report author, said: “Brazil will add the most DTH revenues [$3.86 billion] between 2011 and 2017 – nearly doubling its total in the process. The US will grow by $3.1 billion, meaning that Brazil and the US will contribute nearly half of the extra revenues.”
He continued: “However, DTH revenues will decline for 17 countries between 2011 and 2017. Much of this is due to greater competition forcing down ARPUs. Furthermore, low-cost DTH packages are making a significant impact in several countries.”
Cable TV revenues will begin to slide in 2014, with revenues falling by $3.2 billion between 2011 and 2017 to $85 billion. However, cable operators will gain extra revenues by converting subscribers to bundles.
Digital cable TV revenues will climb from $62 billion in 2011 to $81 billion in 2017 (up by 32 per cent) – a faster increase than DTH. China will add $4.1 billion in digital cable TV revenues over this period, followed by Japan with an extra $3.6 billion. Digital cable TV revenues will fall by $1.1 billion in the US over the same period. In fact, digital cable TV revenues will drop for 12 countries.
Analog cable TV revenues will decline by $23 billion between 2011 and 2017 to only $4.1 billion in 2017. India will account for half of the remaining 2017 total.
IPTV revenues will climb to $21.3 billion in 2017, up from $9.7 billion in 2011. The US will remain the largest IPTV revenue earner by taking a third of the 2017 total. Despite being relative newcomers, Fios TV and U-Verse, in particular, have made impressive subscriber gains in the US mainly at the expense of the cable operators, due to aggressive pricing campaigns.
Global pay TV revenues will only grow by 13.5 per cent between 2011 and 2017. Revenues will fall in North America and will only grow by 3.5 per cent in Western Europe. However, Latin America will enjoy a 57.5 per cent increase, followed by Eastern Europe (48.5 per cent) and Asia Pacific (40.1 per cent).
The US will remain the world’s largest pay TV revenue earner by some distance. However, its revenues will fall by $1.2 billion between 2011 and 2017 as homes convert to bundles and as competition forces down prices. On the other hand, Brazil’s revenues will double over the same period (adding $4.8 billion), with India (up $3.2 billion) also enjoying impressive growth.