SVoD uptake is accelerating and in terms of hours viewing per day it will shortly draw level with broadcast TV globally by 2023, according to a report from Rethink TV.
The report, The rise in SVoD viewing to swamp traditional TV by 2023, offers a global forecast by region of all SVoD usage to 2023, and shows the stark contrast between the heavily AVoD Asia compared to the SVoD frenzy going on in the US and Europe.
Rethink TV sees 478 million SVoD subscribers today growing to 743 million by 2023, with China having the most SVoD subscribers by 2023, but North America still driving the largest dollar volume.
Research TV anticipates the US market rising from a combined paid SVoD (including vMVPD) reaching 236.6 million subscriptions by the end of 2023, from a base today of some 146.5 million.
Europe and Asia will be neck and neck in SVoD revenues by 2023, but with far fewer subscribers in Europe, each paying significantly more than those in Asia, a region dominated by frighteningly large Advertising VoD streaming numbers.
Netflix will continue to lead in SVoD in both subscribers numbers (outside of China), but will make up 194 million SVoD customers out of 743 million globally by 2023, some 26 per cent of total global subscribers. In the US Netflix today represents 44 per cent of subscriptions, but will only be 31 per cent of the increased US subscription levels by 2023.
One of the new leaders to emerge from the battle for the US market will be WarnerMedia, under its new AT&T defined, freemium strategy reaching 29.6 million SVoD homes by 2023. Disney is also likely to have multiple SVoD service types, but is likely to struggle outside the US.
Europe will be a mishmash of different approaches with pure play US operators like Netflix and Amazon now established, US studios beginning to stake a claim, and local broadcasters ganging up to challenge them, while the region has its own pure play SVoD players also such as Maxdome, Sky, Zattoo, and Rakuten TV.
The Asia Pacific market is highly skewed with China expected to amass 245 million SVoD subscribers, some 72 per cent of the total region, but the average spend will be just $2 to $3 a month. Latin American is a three horse race between the leader Netflix, America Movil’s Claro TV and Televisa’s Blim, with US studios looking to play King maker there.