Analyst: Pay-TV revenues to plunge to $150bn
May 28, 2020
Global pay-TV revenues for 138 countries peaked in 2016 at $202 billion (€184bn), according to the Global Pay TV Revenue Forecasts report from analyst firm Digital TV Research. Revenues will fall to $150 billion in 2025 – despite the number of pay-TV subscribers rising by 35 million between 2019 and 2025.
Revenues will decline in 61 countries between 2019 and 2025. The US will provide the most dramatic fall – by $31 billion. Brazil and Canada will each lose more than $1 billion.
“Much of the losses are down to subscribers converting from standalone TV to a bundle where they pay more overall to the operator, but less on TV services,” explains Simon Murray, Principal Analyst at Digital TV Research. “Cord-cutting is also a major problem, especially in the US.”
On a positive note, India will gain $812 million in pay-TV revenues between 2019 and 2025 to take its total to $6 billion – up by 16 per cent. The second biggest winner will be Indonesia, with a $719 million gain.
The top five countries will account for 56 per cent of global pay-TV revenues by 2025. The next 15 countries will bring in a further 25 per cent. Therefore, the top 20 countries will contribute 81 per cent of pay-TV revenues by 2025.
Satellite TV revenues will fall by $18 billion between 2019 and 2025. The US alone will decline by $14 billion. IPTV revenues will be flat between 2019 and 2025 at $27 billion. Global cable TV revenues (digital and analogue together) peaked at $97 billion in 2012, but will fall to $63 billion in 2025.
“Our forecasts assume that professional sports will restart in August following relaxations in the Covid-19 lockdown,” advises Murray. “If this does not happen, then pay-TV will experience considerable churn.”
|Top 10 countries by Pay-TV revenues ($ million)|