Analyst: Pay-TV revenues to plunge to $150bn

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Global pay-TV revenues for 138 countries peaked in 2016 at $202 billion (€184bn), according to the Global Pay TV Revenue Forecasts report from analyst firm Digital TV Research. Revenues will fall to $150 billion in 2025 – despite the number of pay-TV subscribers rising by 35 million between 2019 and 2025.

Revenues will decline in 61 countries between 2019 and 2025. The US will provide the most dramatic fall – by $31 billion. Brazil and Canada will each lose more than $1 billion.

“Much of the losses are down to subscribers converting from standalone TV to a bundle where they pay more overall to the operator, but less on TV services,” explains Simon Murray, Principal Analyst at Digital TV Research. “Cord-cutting is also a major problem, especially in the US.”

On a positive note, India will gain $812 million in pay-TV revenues between 2019 and 2025 to take its total to $6 billion – up by 16 per cent. The second biggest winner will be Indonesia, with a $719 million gain.

The top five countries will account for 56 per cent of global pay-TV revenues by 2025. The next 15 countries will bring in a further 25 per cent. Therefore, the top 20 countries will contribute 81 per cent of pay-TV revenues by 2025.

Satellite TV revenues will fall by $18 billion between 2019 and 2025. The US alone will decline by $14 billion. IPTV revenues will be flat between 2019 and 2025 at $27 billion. Global cable TV revenues (digital and analogue together) peaked at $97 billion in 2012, but will fall to $63 billion in 2025.

“Our forecasts assume that professional sports will restart in August following relaxations in the Covid-19 lockdown,” advises Murray. “If this does not happen, then pay-TV will experience considerable churn.”

Top 10 countries by Pay-TV revenues ($ million)
Ranking Country 2019 Ranking Country 2025
1 USA 88,512 1 USA 57,423
2 China 9,929 2 China 10,062
3 UK 6,637 3 India 5,995
4 Canada 6,096 4 UK 5,789
5 Brazil 5,338 5 Canada 5,061
6 India 5,183 6 Japan 4,714
7 Japan 4,959 7 Brazil 4,233
8 France 4,108 8 France 3,479
9 Germany 3,877 9 Germany 3,382
10 Argentina 3,152 10 Mexico 2,815

 

 


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