Analyst: Pay-TV revenues to plunge to $150bn
May 28, 2020
Global pay-TV revenues for 138 countries peaked in 2016 at $202 billion (€184bn), according to the Global Pay TV Revenue Forecasts report from analyst firm Digital TV Research. Revenues will fall to $150 billion in 2025 – despite the number of pay-TV subscribers rising by 35 million between 2019 and 2025.
Revenues will decline in 61 countries between 2019 and 2025. The US will provide the most dramatic fall – by $31 billion. Brazil and Canada will each lose more than $1 billion.
“Much of the losses are down to subscribers converting from standalone TV to a bundle where they pay more overall to the operator, but less on TV services,” explains Simon Murray, Principal Analyst at Digital TV Research. “Cord-cutting is also a major problem, especially in the US.”
On a positive note, India will gain $812 million in pay-TV revenues between 2019 and 2025 to take its total to $6 billion – up by 16 per cent. The second biggest winner will be Indonesia, with a $719 million gain.
The top five countries will account for 56 per cent of global pay-TV revenues by 2025. The next 15 countries will bring in a further 25 per cent. Therefore, the top 20 countries will contribute 81 per cent of pay-TV revenues by 2025.
Satellite TV revenues will fall by $18 billion between 2019 and 2025. The US alone will decline by $14 billion. IPTV revenues will be flat between 2019 and 2025 at $27 billion. Global cable TV revenues (digital and analogue together) peaked at $97 billion in 2012, but will fall to $63 billion in 2025.
“Our forecasts assume that professional sports will restart in August following relaxations in the Covid-19 lockdown,” advises Murray. “If this does not happen, then pay-TV will experience considerable churn.”
| Top 10 countries by Pay-TV revenues ($ million) | |||||
| Ranking | Country | 2019 | Ranking | Country | 2025 |
| 1 | USA | 88,512 | 1 | USA | 57,423 |
| 2 | China | 9,929 | 2 | China | 10,062 |
| 3 | UK | 6,637 | 3 | India | 5,995 |
| 4 | Canada | 6,096 | 4 | UK | 5,789 |
| 5 | Brazil | 5,338 | 5 | Canada | 5,061 |
| 6 | India | 5,183 | 6 | Japan | 4,714 |
| 7 | Japan | 4,959 | 7 | Brazil | 4,233 |
| 8 | France | 4,108 | 8 | France | 3,479 |
| 9 | Germany | 3,877 | 9 | Germany | 3,382 |
| 10 | Argentina | 3,152 | 10 | Mexico | 2,815 |