Forecast: iPhones 40% of smartphone market value in 2022

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A report from Juniper Research forecasts that sales of iPhones will bring in over $200 billion in 2022; nearly 40 per cent of the total smartphone hardware market, despite representing less than 20 per cent of devices sold that year.

The research notes that although smartphone purchase cycles are lengthening, Apple has managed to consistently convince users to purchase higher-priced models through curation of a strong hardware and software ecosystem, which other vendors have only limited opportunities to do in the current market. As a result, Apple’s average selling price will rise in the coming years, while Android devices will decline, unless they can leverage new technologies like 5G or bring new design features, such as foldable phones, into the market.

Juniper Research believes that Android vendors will struggle to compete on a features basis in future. The research shows how vendors that focus on a particular segment and investing in premium features, such as high-end audio and advances in camera technology, will not appeal widely enough to compete at scale in the smartphone market.

‘Feature diversification alone is not enough for lasting success in the crowded smartphone market,’ remarked research co-author Nick Hunt. “Apple and Samsung have succeeded in fostering brand loyalty, which smaller vendors have struggled with, despite many introducing new capabilities. These players need to pair strong features with strong branding to have sustained success.”

The research also notes that the decline in Huawei’s fortunes, thanks to the US trade ban, will not restore older brands to prominence, but allow other Chinese brands to expand. We expect BBK, the manufacturer of Oppo, Vivo, Realme, iQOO and OnePlus smartphones, will have over 200 million smartphones shipped in 2022; making it the third largest player that year. In the meantime, Huawei’s market share will decline to just over 9 per cent in 2022, from 11 per cent in 2019.


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