Pay-TV streamer Viaplay has somewhat earned increased confidence with a set of solid Q4 numbers and a reiteration of its 2023 and longer-term guidance. “But with the trading backdrop still complex and breakeven in the International segment still a year away, there remains much to be seen before the market discounts a sustainable group EBIT stream,” say analysts from investment bank Jefferies.

Jefferies maintains its ‘HOLD’ advice to clients, but drops its Target Price for the company’s shares from SEK 253.20 (€22.75) down to SEK 235 (a fall of 7 per cent).

Viaplay’s numbers were “mixed” says the bank. Subscriber numbers were in line and net sales +1.7 per cent ahead, but EBIT loss (excluding ACI & IAC) behind (-SEK -284 million vs consensus on -SEK -246 million). Net subscriber adds were +889,000 Q-o-Q (from +880,000/+765,000 in Q3 2022/Q2 2022). Organic net sales growth remained high at 24 per cent (from 25.4 per cent / 18.4 per cent in Q3 2022 / Q2 2022). Losses for international are in line with guidance and consensus (FY22 EBIT of -SEK1.35 billion).

As to guidance for 2023, the company said, with regards to the Nordics, that “timing of price increases and the phasing of content costs are expected to result in lower margins for the first half of 2023, and then higher margins and a Y-o-Y increase in full year” (consensus is for +27 per cent Y-o-Y growth, +1pp margin Y-o-Y in 2023).

In its International markets, Viaplay says: “the high levels of international subscriber and revenue growth are expected to result in significantly lower losses in 2023, and a combined international profit in 2024” (consensus -SEK 1 billion in 2023, -SEK 0.1 billion in 2024).

Viaplay’s FY23 Guidance reiterated:

• Group organic sales growth c.24-26 per cent

• Nordic organic sales growth c.12-15 per cent

• Viaplay subscribers at 9 million, (5 million in Nordics, 4 million internationally) inline

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Categories: Blogs, Business, Inside Satellite, Results

Tags: Jefferies, nordics, viaplay