Analyst: China, India power APAC ad revenue growth
April 11, 2017
Findings from analyst firm Media Partners Asia’s (MPA) latest edition of Asia Pacific Advertising Trends indicate that net advertising revenues in Asia Pacific, measured after discounts across 14 markets, grew by 6.8 per cent in 2016 to reach ~$170 billion (€160bn), compared with an 8.5 per cent expansion in 2015. Ad spend across these markets will increase by a further 6.4 per cent in 2017, and at a 4.9 per cent CAGR between 2017 and 2022, according to MPA forecasts. This follows a 7.6 per cent CAGR between 2012 and 2017.
According to MPA executive director Vivek Couto, future growth is becoming more challenged, as markets mature and working populations stagnate or decline. “This leaves China and India as the main dynamos of advertising growth. While Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand are also important growth economies, they lag China and India in scale. Growth trajectories for the region’s other scale markets, Australia, Japan and Korea, are markedly lower than they have been in the past, especially for Korea.”
India is set to become Asia Pacific’s best performing ad market over the next five years, with net ad revenue expanding at a 13.1 per cent CAGR between 2017 and 2022. This will help India overtake Australia to become the region’s third largest ad market by 2022, after China and Japan. Australia will fall to fourth place, while Korea will remain in fifth.
Another $50 Billion In Net Ad Revenue By 2022
Over this period, net ad revenue across the 14 makets measured by MPA will rise from $180 billion in 2017 to $230 billion by 2022. In China, the region’s biggest advertising market, net ad revenue will reach $121 billion by 2022, from $90 billion in 2017. In Japan, net ad revenue will total $50 billion by 2022, from $46 billion in 2017.
India, forecast to enjoy the fastest growth over the next five years, will see net ad revenue expanding to $17.1 billion by 2022, up from $9.2 billion in 2017. For Australia, another mature market, net ad revenue will rise to $13.2 billion by 2022, from $11.8 billion in 2017. Despite slow growth, Korea will hold onto its position as Asia Pacific’s fifth largest ad market, with net ad revenue touching $9.7 billion by 2022, up from $9.0 billion in 2017.
Indonesia, Southeast Asia’s largest ad market, will remain in sixth place, generating $3.2 billion in net ad revenue by 2022. Indonesia will be closely followed by Taiwan and then the Philippines, which is poised to leap from 11th place among APAC’s biggest ad markets in 2017 to 8th place by 2022, thanks to an expected 11.4 per cent five-year CAGR.
That momentum will make the Philippines the second-fastest growing ad market after India, among the 14 Asia Pacific markets measured by MPA. Thailand follows as the third quickest, with a 6.8 per cent CAGR forecast for 2017 to 2022. Next is Indonesia, projected to notch up a 6.2 per cent CAGR over the same period.
“Domestic demand is stabilising across key Asian economies, helping boost consumption, which is encouraging for advertising expenditure,” Couto said. “External demand is also improving, as exports reach new highs in a number of markets, but activity may decelerate significantly in 2H 2017. In general, economic growth is slowing down, although among growth markets, China, India, Indonesia and the Philippines remain strong. Among mature markets, Japan is proving to be somewhat resilient and robust.”
Internet advertising continues to grow at a red-hot pace, climbing 20.8 per cent in 2016 across the 14 markets in MPA’s report to reach $66 billion. In 2016, the internet was the biggest medium for advertising in Australia, China, Korea, New Zealand and Taiwan. MPA expects that by 2022, Hong Kong, Japan and Singapore will join their ranks.
Television advertising remains robust in many territories, especially in India, Indonesia, Japan, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam. However, net TV ad spend as a whole slightly contracted in 2016, by 0.5 per cent across the 14 markets surveyed by MPA. Free-to-air TV ad revenues are becoming weaker in Australia and Korea among larger markets, and in Hong Kong, Malaysia and Singapore among smaller markets.
Nonetheless, TV will still be the largest ad medium in India, Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam by 2022. At the same time, the internet will also become the second-largest ad medium in these geographies over the next five years. The biggest swings will take place in Southeast Asia, as mobile and video advertising drive internet ad spends to new heights.
“Consumers are spending more time on mobile, social and online video platforms, driving demand for internet advertising,” Couto notes. “In most places, Google, including YouTube, and Facebook are dominant. In some markets however, especially in India, Japan and Korea, local digital players, as well as key incumbents in TV and print, are beginning to grab a bigger slice of the pie. China, meanwhile, is entirely dominated by a local ecosystem.”