Forecast: 4 tons of satellites launched daily by 2032
December 13, 2023
Euroconsult, a specialist in satellite industry market intelligence, has announced the release of its 26th edition flagship report, Satellites to be Built and Launched. This edition forecasts an average of over 2,800 satellites launched annually – equivalent to eight satellites per day and totaling a mass of four tons – between 2023 and 2032. The report sheds light on the long-term dynamic of the satellite market, emphasising sustained demand, the concentration of NGSO constellations, and the seismic shifts caused by a handful of mega constellations, with a particular focus on the short-term bottleneck faced by established vendors.
Commercial NGSO constellations, known for their size and advanced capabilities, are reshaping the manufacturing and deployment of satellites to deliver global connectivity. They dominate the industry by concentrating 65 per cent of satellites demand yet contribute only 18 per cent to the manufacturing and launch value, averaging $10.5 billion yearly. In comparison, GEO comsat will average $3.4 billion (€3.1bn). Euroconsult forecasts moderate increase in GEO comsat demand, surpassing the levels of the past decade, with an average of 14 orders annually by 2032. However, these are for smaller satellites, resulting in a reduced market value. This shift reflects the decline in broadcasting business and a transition toward the expanding broadband business, emphasising the need for scalable solutions.
The report also reveals a robust and sustained demand for satellites from legacy customers. Civil and defence government operators alone hold three quarters of the $58 billion manufacturing and launch market yearly average value. The six-leading space-faring governments or organisations alone (US, China, Russia, Japan, India and European governments, EU and ESA) will account for 66 per cent of the total satellite manufacturing and launch demand in value.
Maxime Puteaux, Space Industry Practice Leader at Euroconsult and editor of the report, stated: “The increasing concentrated demands for satellites by a handful of new customers, coupled with high pressure on their cost structures and internalised supply chains, is reshaping market dynamics and placing vendors’ margins under pressure. The scarcity of launches and the dependency of Western launch customers on SpaceX create a market concentration which will have long term effect on the industry.”