Report: Satellite demand to quadruple by 2031
December 12, 2022
A report from Euroconsult forecasts significant growth in the number of satellites launched, and driven by commercial constellations. The market intelligence report anticipates over 2,500 satellites to be launched on average every year – or seven satellites a day totalling 3 tons of mass – over 2022-2031.
In terms of satellite numbers, Non-geostationary constellations remain the largest market driver, as 83 per cent of all satellites to be launched over 2022-2031 are expected to be part of constellations, though only accounting for 30 per cent of the manufacturing and launch value.
Euroconsult says that civil government and defence customers will remain legacy customers, holding the largest market value of $29 billion every year with three-quarters of the demand in manufacturing and launch. The six leading space faring governments or organisations alone (US, China, Russia, Japan, India and European governments, EU and ESA) will account for two third of the demand in value.
“Commercial demand will experience a novel feat as emerging NGSO constellation broadband operators will account for half of the commercial demand in manufacturing and launch value at $5.3 billion yearly average, whilst GEO com-sat will average $3.2 billion. Euroconsult forecast a yearly average of 13 orders by 2031, reflecting eroding broadcasting business and a shift towards broadband business ramping up and not yet offsetting the previous one,” says Euroconsult.
However, the report comes with a warning. It says that increasing concentrated demands for satellites by a small number of new customers with high pressure on their cost structure will also put vendors’ margins under pressure,” according to report editor Maxime Puteaux.” “We have been monitoring satellite ‘mega factories’ and noticed they are emerging ten times faster than the projected demand. As we expect the 20 legacy vendors to retain at least 40 percent of the future demand in value, manufacturing oversupply is real and sustainability is at risk.”
“Satellite markets are no stranger to macro-economic uncertainty due to the war in Ukraine, the Covid pandemic, disrupted supply chains, high inflation and central bank monetary policy changes. The satellite industry is currently facing significant changes as satellite demand are becoming increasingly concentrated towards a handful of NGSO broadband players, while the market value continues to remain evenly distributed across players and orbits. Thought largely unprofitable to date, these constellations put high stress on current supply capabilities and challenge vendors’ addressability through their vertical integration,” adds the report.