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Forecast: $14.3bn in IoSM revenue to 2031

February 15, 2022

In its 5th year, NSR’s first to market In-Orbit Services: Satellite Servicing, ADR, and SSA, 5th Edition (IoSM5) forecasts $14.3 billion (€12.6bn) in IoSM revenue, driven by Life Extension, generating $4.7 billion through 2031. As the race to launch Non-GEO Satellite Constellation grows, thousands of satellites are set to launch through the coming decade growing demand for IoS.

Over the next decade, NSR’s IoSM5 anticipates growth for all In-Orbit Service applications. The Space Situational Awareness (SSA) market, guided by the need to track assets, is expected to grow fast, and reach a $3.7 billon opportunity. And Active Debris Removal will be the fastest-growing area, at 38 per cent CAGR, driven by innovative technology and increasing demand for maintaining secure & sustainable orbits for satellite constellations.

However, while the addressable market is large, with current low technology readiness and most IoS missions slated for mid to long-term launch dates, a slow start is expected for this market. This timing uncertainty means service providers are still trying to find their pace.

“As most sector technologies develop in silos, all applications under the In-Orbit Services umbrella are experiencing deployment challenges,” notes report Co-author Hussain Bokhari. “Growing innovation throughout the market reflects positively on Governments’ support for IoS; however, the challenge remains – ‘How do we effectively commercialise and address market and technology problems to establish a robust, and long-term low-cost solution’.”

Demand for flexibility drives development, but technology demonstrations currently dominate the market. As technology, policy, and demand further develop, IoS, ADR, and SSA will become key components in all satellite operator strategy.

“NSR identified tens of thousands of satellites that could benefit from in-orbit services, but market demand will only reach 4,000 satellites over the next decade,” states report Co-author Dallas Kasaboski.  “This disconnect, amidst more recent announcements for many more constellations, demonstrate concern over orbital sustainability, and will be key for IoS adoption in the next decade.”

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