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Forecast: Global SVoD revenues over $321bn in 2030

January 25, 2023

MIDiA Research, a market research and insight firm, has released its latest report, MIDiA Research video subscription forecasts 2023-2030. The report predicts that the global SVoD market will reach $321.9 billion (€296.3bn) in 2030, with growth driven primarily by an influx of Asia-Pacific subscribers.

According to the report, the global SVoD market was valued at $105.7 billion in 2022, representing a 24.6 per cent increase from 2021’s $84.8 billion. While growth rates are expected to decline from the high of 46.6 per cent in 2020, subscription revenues are forecasted to grow by 24.4 per cent to reach $131.6 billion in 2023.

The report also highlights regional trends, with North America accounting for 18.2 per cent of global video subscribers and 38.6 per cent of global streaming revenue in 2023. However, by 2030, North America’s share is expected to decrease to 13.2 per cent of global subscribers and 32.2 per cent of global revenue.

In contrast, the Asia-Pacific region is poised to continue its dominance in the industry, with 56.2 per cent of global subscribers and 32.2 per cent of global revenues in 2023, and 58.8 per cent of global subscribers and 34.5 per cent of global subscription revenues in 2030, overtaking North America to become the largest revenue market by 2030. Disney is expected to maintain its market leadership between 2023-2030, with Netflix now established as the second largest subscriber base.

“The subscription distribution dominance of Asia-Pacific will prompt intense competition from Western SVoD services, as they try to corner the world’s biggest regional market. Western SVoD content commissioning will be partly recalibrated towards Asian movies and shows that speak to global audiences. Efforts to discover the next Squid Game or Parasite will amplify Asia-Pacific culture globally to create a new golden age for Asian entertainment that will compete directly with Hollywood mainstream studio output,” commented Tim Mulligan, Lead Video Analyst for MIDiA Research

“For the first time, we have created the MIDiA bear scenario, an alternative forecast that considers the case in which the current recession has more impact on video streaming subscriptions than we anticipate. It represents the scenario where, in a harsh 18-month recession, subscribers cancel some number of their subscriptions. Subscription growth over the next two years would more than half. A post-recession rebound will eventually see the gap in subscriptions narrow to just below base – with recovery varying by region. North America and Europe remain the furthest below their base scenario in the years leading up to 2030,” said Perry Gresham, Forecast and Modelling Analyst for MIDiA Research.

“After eight years of steady expansion, global subscriber numbers will have neared their peak by 2030. That leaves Western SVoD services with a narrowing window of opportunity. With competition intensifying from indigenous services within Asia Pacific and emerging markets, gaining those remaining subscribers will be tough,” added Ben Woods, Video Analyst for MIDiA Research.

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