US telco giant AT&T is already a financial backer of AST SpaceMobile (and has guaranteed a $20 million revenue commitment). AST plans on circling the globe with its ‘direct-to-cellular’ satellite service. AT&T has told analysts that it expects some 30-40 per cent of its US clients to take a low-cost add-on service for connection to AST when in out-of-service terrestrial cellular range.

AT&T’s CEO John Stankey suggests that it will charge about $2 per month for this add-on service to between 60 and 90 million consumers. Analysts from Arcomas say that – if the forecast proves accurate – this would deliver around $1.4-$2.1 billion a year to AST.

The analysts reminded the market that AST SpaceMobile has Memorandums of Understanding with more than 40 telcos around the world.

Indeed, as well as AT&T, both Google and Vodafone have made major commitments while Verizon at the end of May said it will invest $100 million in AST.

Arcomas suggests that it is likely that Vodafone and Verizon will have similar estimates. “Why would Verizon/Vodafone customers be different [to AT&T]? They won’t. So, assume 1 billion MNO customers sign up AST @ just $2 = $12 billion per year to AST.”

The advantages for AST are many. They don’t have to create billing relationships for millions of clients: the telcos will handle that. They don’t have much to do in terms of marketing. The telcos will handle the service promotion. They don’t need hundreds or thousands of retail shops on the ground.

Last week’s report from Deutsche Bank (DB) seems to confirm the financials. DB estimates that ARPU for AST will be $1.63 per month for this year, growing to $2.03 for 2025 and increasing modestly to $2.10 by 2030. It is these forecasts which helped the bank suggest share price values growing to $22 per share next year, but exploding to $121 in 2026 and a mind-blowing $672 by 2027.

Other posts by Chris Forrester:

1. Intelsat confirms another space tug rescue mission
2. Ariane 6’s wet dress rehearsal
3. Bank forecasts 56m subs for AST SpaceMobile
4. Terran Orbital in ‘non-compliance’ with NYSE
5. ESA contemplates major rule change
6. Alpine Space raises $155m for tech fund
7. Astra 1P waits on launch pad
8. Belgium to build 500 satellites per year
9. IRIS2 facing complications

Categories: Blogs, Business, Funding, Inside Satellite, Satellite

Tags: AST SpaceMobile, AT&T